透明度与分权如何影响财政赤字风险——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究  

How Do Transparency and Decentralization Affect Fiscal Deficit Risk——An Empirical Study Based on China ’s Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：梁城城 王鹏 

机构地区：[1]中国财政科学研究院,北京100142 [2]西南民族大学经济学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2018年第2期28-41,共14页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究西部和边疆地区青年基金项目(15XJC790012)

摘　　要：使用空间计量经济模型和省级面板数据,实证分析了财政透明度、财政分权及金融分权对财政风险的影响。研究发现：财政透明度对人均财政赤字占比有明显抑制作用,对财政赤字率及人均财政赤字均有先增后降的倒U型关系,根据财政透明度走势,其总体上降低了财政赤字风险;三类财政分权指标对财政风险影响方向不同,总体上财政分权增加了财政风险;金融分权扩大金融风险,将财政风险金融化,从而降低财政风险,且抑制作用在金融危机后更强。Using the spatial econometric model and provincial panel data in China, we analyze the impact of fiscal transparency,fiscal decentralization and financial decentralization on fiscal risk. The results show that, fiscal transparency has obvious inhibitory effect on the ratio of fiscal deficit per capita, while it shows an inverted U type relationship with both fiscal deficit ratio and the fiscal deficit per capita. According to the trend of the fiscal transparency, it reduces the deficit risk overall. Three types of fiscal decentralization indexes have different impact on fiscal risk, and the overall impact of fiscal decentralization on the fiscal risk is positive. Financial decentralization could reduce fiscal risk by increasing financial risk, and this inhibitory effect is stronger after the financial crisis.

关 键 词：财政赤字风险 财政透明度 财政分权 金融分权 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]