资本流动突然中断、汇率制度与经济增长  

Capital Flow Sudden Stops,Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth

作　　者：李芳[1] 卢璐[1] 卢逸扬 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院 [2]美国范德堡大学文理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2018年第2期69-85,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"国际资本流动与中国资本输出的长效战略研究"(15BJL069);国家社会科学基金重大项目"经济发展新常态下货币政策的结构调整功能及其有效性研究"(16ZDA034)

摘　　要：2007年以来,中国发生资本流动突然中断的次数和规模明显增加,对我国汇率制度改革提出了新的挑战。本文利用全球149个经济体1992—2015年的年度数据,采用不同的实证方法进行一系列分析后发现:突然中断会造成经济增长速度显著下降,但对不同汇率制度经济体的影响却不一致;在发生突然中断时,弹性较小的汇率制度下的经济体受到的负面影响更小;导致这种差异的原因可能是汇率制度弹性较小的经济体通货膨胀水平通常较低,价格稳定有利于出口,从而有利于经济的恢复。这一发现为一些国家和地区在发生资本流动突然中断危机时重新回到盯住汇率制度的做法提供了经验上的支持,也为我国在增强汇率制度弹性的改革过程中有效应对资本流动突然中断的冲击提供了政策参考。Since 2007 capital flow sudden stops have been taking place in China more frequently and on larger scale which challenge the reform of exchange rate regime. Based on the annual data of 149 economies, this paper tests the economic impact of sudden stops on countries with different exchange arrangements. It is found that sudden stops do have a significant negative impact on a country＇s economic growth. However, different effects are associated with different exchange rate arrangements. In the case of sudden stop, the economies with less flexible exchange rate arrangements suffered less due to the lower inflation and more stable export. This founding provides empirical support for the countries return to pegged regimes when sudden stops occurred, and also important policy reference for China to deal with the shocks from sudden stop during the reform of increasing the elasticity of exchange rate regime.

关 键 词：资本流动突然中断 汇率制度 经济增长 面板模型 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]