燃煤烟气氨法脱硫过程的综合风险评价  

Comprehensive risk assessment of ammonia desulfurization for coal-fired flue gas

作　　者：马振[1] 万皓[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海大学环境与化学工程学院,上海200444 [2]上海大学能源管理办公室,上海200444

出　　处：《上海大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第1期92-99,共8页Journal of Shanghai University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2009AA064102)

摘　　要：针对燃煤烟气氨法脱硫的现状,构建层次分析法-模糊评价法的综合风险指标体系.该体系建立了层次递阶结构,并根据各元素的标度值构造出判断矩阵,求解各级因素的权重值.评价体系有5个一级指标:技术风险、环境风险、安全风险、经济风险、管理风险.各一级指标中含4个具体的分析对象,根据专家投票的评分结果与构建的模糊评价矩阵,结合评分集可计算量化的风险值.评价结果显示,氨法脱硫过程风险值为60.65,属于"较高"风险行业.技术问题面临着"高"风险,可见该行业风险主要来自技术因素.所得综合风险评价结果与实际情况较为符合,对氨法脱硫理论与实践的探究均有一定的参考价值.According to the status of ammonia desulfurization for coal-fired flue gas, a comprehensive risk index system is established by combining a fuzzy assessment method with analytic hierarchical process （AHP） method. A hierarchical structure is established. Judgement matrix is constructed based on calibration of each element and calculated values of elements in all levels. The evaluation system contains five primary factors： technical risk, environmental risk, safety risk, benefit risk and management risk. There are four specific analytical objects for each index. According to the results of experts voting and fuzzy evaluation matrix, risk value can be calculated with reference to the score collection. The result shows that the risk value of ammonia desulfurization process is 60.65, and the risk value of the industry is a little high. Desulfurization technology is on a high risk level, in other words, the risk mainly comes from technology. The result of comprehensive risk assessment is in accordance with the status, and it has a reference value in studying the theory and practice of ammonia desulfurization.

关 键 词：氨法脱硫 层次分析法 模糊评价法 综合风险评价 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]