ECMWF资料和Bogus资料的2015年热带气旋结构的对比分析  

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE BETWEEN ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION REANALYSIS DATA AND BOGUS MODEL IN 2015

作　　者：李霁杭 黄燕燕[1] 万齐林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510640

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2018年第1期48-58,共11页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：广东省气象局科研项目(GRMC2017Q01);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2015CB452802);广州市科技计划项目(201604020012);国家自然基金项目(41675099、41705089)共同资助

摘　　要：利用ECMWF新推出的0.125°高分辨率再分析资料对2015年出现在西北太平洋海域的所有被编号的热带气旋按强度进行分类分析,通过与Bogus对比发现该资料模拟的热带气旋整体表现良好,无论是对强台风以上级别、台风还是强热带风暴级以下热带气旋的温度场、高度场、湿度场和风场的刻画均比较符合热带气旋的实际发展状态,且该再分析资料既可获得热带气旋的非对称、精细结构,并且分辨率又与模式相匹配,有利于在未来的预报和同化分析中起到积极作用,以便最终应用于热带气旋的数值预报领域,进而取代Bogus模型。The description of tropical cyclone structure is very vital to the tropical cyclone （TC） numerical simulation, and the intensity and the internal structure of TC simulated are still not satisfactorily understood. Sometimes, the structure of Bogus model couldnot conform to the actual situation.Furthermore, simulation results are still not satisfactory with low resolution reanalysis data directly used.Therefore, high resolution reanalysis data are required for describing TC fine structure. In this research, the numbered TCs in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are classified and analyzed according to 0.125 degree high-resolution ECMWF reanalysis data.In 2015, overall, ECMWF has a good performance in the simulation of TCs compared with Bogus. No matter how strong the TC is, its height, temperature, humidity and wind field depicted by ECMWF are close to the actual state. Moreover, not only ECMWF reanalysis data can characterize the fine and asymmetric structure of TCs, but also its resolution matches the numerical model, which is helpful in prediction and assimilation analysis in future, so that it can be applied to the numerical forecast of TCs in place of Bogus.

关 键 词：ECMWF再分析资料 热带气旋 结构分析 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]