基于灰色模型的港口吞吐量预测研究——以曹妃甸港口为例  

Research for Port Throughput Prediction Based on Gray Model——Taking Caofeidian port as an example

作　　者：田雪[1] 王丹丹[1] 王锐月 付帅帅 

机构地区：[1]北京物资学院物流学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2018年第4期280-284,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71772016);科技创新服务能力建设-科技成果-提升计划项目(TSJH20161003701)

摘　　要：货物吞吐量是衡量港口发展水平的硬性指标，进行港口吞吐量预测可以更好的指导港口基础设施的规划与发展方向．通过对曹妃甸港主要货物在“十二五”规划时期的吞吐量情况进行分析，采用灰色预测的方法并分别对主要货物建立相应的预测模型并进行检验；同时分析货物吞吐量的预测数据，为曹妃甸港口的未来发展策略提出具体建议．Cargo throughput is an index for the level of port development. Port throughput forecasting can guide the plan and development of infrastructure in port. Based on the analysis of the throughput of the main cargo of Caofeidian in the ＂12th Five-Year Plan＂ period, the gray forecasting method is used to establish the corresponding forecasting model for the main goods and the test data of the cargo throughput were analyzed. We will give some specific recommendations about the future development strategy for Caofeidian port.

关 键 词：港口吞吐量 灰色预测 发展策略 

分 类 号：U691.71[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]