资本下乡过程中农户风险认知对土地转出意愿的影响研究——基于安徽省526份农户调研问卷的实证  

On the Effects of Farmers' Risk Perception on Their Out-Transference Willingness in the Process of Capital Downward the Countryside

作　　者：陈振[1] 郭杰[1] 欧名豪[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学土地管理学院/农村土地资源利用与整治国家地方联合工程研究中心,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第2期129-137,共9页Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"资本下乡过程中农地流转冲突的发生机理与管控政策研究"(71603003);国家自然科学基金项目"农村建设用地发展权转移增值收益共享研究:形成机理;分配策略及治理机制"(71774086);江苏高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队"城乡统筹与农村土地制度创新"(2015ZSTD004)

摘　　要：农地资本化流转陷入一定"低水平困局",传统土地流转意愿的影响因素研究并不能提供一个合理的解释,为此,本文尝试从农户风险认知视角提出一种新的思路,并以安徽省实地调研数据进行验证,以期为引导农地有序流转,提高农地资本化流转效率提供参考。研究结果表明:资本下乡过程中农户风险认知是影响其土地转出意愿的决定性因素;流转租金过低和拖欠流转租金的风险、流转后再就业和养老保障风险、土地非粮化甚至非农化、土地硬化以及撂荒风险显著抑制了农户土地转出意愿;同时,农户性别、年龄及家庭年收入对其土地转出意愿具有显著正向作用。因此,慎重对待农地资本化流转中各类隐性风险,强化流转租金管理,建立严格的工商资本介入农业的准入与监管机制,为年龄偏大及女性农民提供就业培训以及进一步完善农村社会养老保障体系将有效促进农地资本化流转效率。The farmland capital circulation is plagued with"low-level predicament"and the previous studies on the factors influencing the farmland circulation willingness have failed to provide a reasonable explanation on the issue.The purpose of the study is to analyze the effects of farmer's risk perception on the willingness of land transfer in the process of capital downward the countryside,and provide a reference for guiding the orderly circulation of farmland and improving the efficiency of rural capitalization.The Ordered Logistic Model based on the data set surveyed in Anhui is used.The results show as follows.The cognition of farmers'awareness of various risks in the process of capitalization downward the countryside is the decisive factor affecting the willingness of the land to be transferred.The risk of over-renting and arrears of rents,the risk of re-employment and old-age security,the non-grain and even non-agricultural land,the hardening of land and the risk of abandonment significantly have inhibited the willingness of farmers to transfer.Farmers'gender,age and household income have a significant positive effect on their willingness to transfer their land.Therefore,the enhancement of the management of agricultural land capital management,the establishment of strict industrial and commercial capital involved in agricultural access and regulatory mechanisms,the offering of employment training for older and female farmers and the improvement of the rural social security system will effectively promote the efficiency of capitalization of agricultural land.

关 键 词：资本下乡 风险认知 农地流转 

分 类 号：F301.1[经济管理—产业经济]