深圳市用水用电灰色预测及其实证分析  

Grey Theory Forecast of Water and Electricity Use and its Empirical Analysis in Shenzhen

作　　者：佟景贵[1] 曹烨[2] 邹振东[2] 

机构地区：[1]深圳职业技术学院,广东深圳518055 [2]北京大学环境与能源学院,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《特区经济》2018年第1期62-64,共3页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：作为城市运转的两大基石,水资源和能源（电能）一直是制约深圳市贯彻落实＂五大发展理念＂的瓶颈。本文基于灰色系统理论的思想和方法对深圳市的自来水生产量、自来水供水总量、全市用水量、发电量、用电总量进行了预测。结果表明,到2030年,深圳市的用水和用电量将达到31.062亿m^3和2610.79亿k Wh。用水量和供水量的差额趋于稳定,而用电量和供电量之间的缺口逐年增大。实证分析认为,应将单位GDP的水耗和电耗降低至2015年60%~70%的水平,才能实现2030年深圳市的用水用电安全。As the two cornerstones of urban operation, water resources and energy（electricity） have become the bottleneck restricting the implementation of the ＂five major development concepts＂ in Shenzhen. Based on the idea and method of grey system theory, this paper forecasts the tap water production, tap water supply,city water consumption, power generation and total electricity consumption in Shenzhen. The results show that by 2030, the water consumption and electricity consumption in Shenzhen will reach 3.1062 billion m3 and 261.079 billion k Wh, respectively. The difference between water consumption and water supply tends to be stable,while the gap between electricity consumption and electricity supply increases year by year. The empirical analysis shows that the water consumption and power consumption of unit GDP should be reduced to the level of60-70% in 2015 to realize the safety of water and electricity use in Shenzhen in 2030.

关 键 词：深圳市 灰色理论 能源安全 实证分析 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]