我国城市群城际铁路建设时机研究  

Research on the Construction Opportunity for Intercity Railways in China

作　　者：蒋中铭[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会综合运输研究所

出　　处：《综合运输》2018年第1期24-30,共7页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：城际铁路对支撑和引领城市群发展具有重要作用,但要避免过度超前建设导致资源浪费,合理把握城际铁路建设时机至关重要。本文基于人口、经济水平等指标对城际通道的运输需求进行模型构建,并对20个城市群中的124条城际主通道进行案例分析。结果表明,至2030年,我国大部分城际主通道可利用高速铁路或既有铁路承担城际客运功能,但部分发达地区确有城际铁路建设需求。提出以下政策建议供相关部门参考：一是及时做好发达地区城市群城际铁路建设规划;二是慎重进行全国范围内的城际铁路大规模集中投资;三是重点抓好未规划有高速铁路的城际通道的城际铁路建设。Although intercity railways play an important role in supporting and guiding the development of urban agglomeration, the excessive construction of such railways can be considered as a waste of resources. Therefore, it is critical to seize a rational construction opportunity for intercity railways. This paper built a transportation demand model for an intercity passage-based on indicators such as population and economic development, and conducted case studies on124 intercity passages in China＇s 20 urban agglomerations. The results showed that, up to the year of 2030, the transportation demands in most intercity passages can be met by high speed railways or the other existing railway systems in the area, while there is a demand for intercity railways construction in certain developed regions. Some policy suggestions are as follows： preparing a comprehensive intercity railway construction planning for the developed regions; avoiding an intensive investment on intercity railways on a national scale; prioritizing the construction of intercity railways in the passages without high speed railways.

关 键 词：城市群 城际铁路 运输需求 建设时机 

分 类 号：F532.3[经济管理—产业经济]