河流解冻日期预报方法实例分析  

作　　者：田京楠 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省大庆水文局,黑龙江大庆163000

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2018年第8期103-104,共2页Technology Innovation and Application

摘　　要：开河日期是指北方河流冰情由封冻变为流冰等其他冰情现象的日期,水文术语称为解冻日期,开河日期预报是水文预报的一部分。影响河流解冻开河的因素较多,文章利用现有已知影响因素作用机理情况,采用实例测站开河日期历史数据,利用线性回归方程法对实例数据进行历史拟合分析,拟合结果表明,已有历史数据的线性回归拟合方程模型拟合结果合格率满足相关预报规范精度要求,可以作为本河流开河预报方法来参考应用。The date of river deicing date is the date when the ice condition of a northern river changes from frozen ice to flow-ing ice, and the hydrological term is called the date of thawing, while the forecast of the date of river deicing is part of the hydro-logical forecast. There are many factors that influence the thawing and deicing of rivers. In this paper, the historical data of the dateof river deicing station are adopted by using the existing mechanism of the known influencing factors. The linear regression equationmethod is used to analyze the case data through historical matching. The historical matching results show that the linear regressionmatching equation model of existing historical data can meet the requirements for the precision of relevant forecast standard and canbe used as the method of forecasting river deicing.

关 键 词：汤旺河 开河日期预报 影响因素分析 回归方程模型 拟合精度评价 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]