连锁性失效测评技术在船舶消防系统中的应用  

Application of chain failure evaluation technique in ship fire fighting system

作　　者：金鸿章 张艳丽[2] 贾诺[3] 曹然[4] 邹艾利 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学,哈尔滨150001 [2]佳木斯大学,黑龙江佳木斯154003 [3]哈尔滨师范大学,哈尔滨150025 [4]东北农业大学,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《黑龙江科学》2018年第2期20-26,共7页Heilongjiang Science

摘　　要：针对船舶特点,应用故障树建立了船舶消防系统连锁失效模型。采用二元决策图对该模型进行了定性和定量分析,有效避免了计算量组合爆炸问题。分析结果直接反映了系统连锁失效路径,确定了各失效因素的重要度,提出了相应措施降低船舶消防系统脆性的发生。这些数据为我国船舶消防系统失效预防和安全管理工作提供了理论依据。在实际应用中,资料的缺乏和精度不高是影响本领域深入研究的主要原因。集对分析法的应用可以充分利用不确定数据,弥补了传统的不足,评价较全面、客观地反映了消防系统安全水平。本文考虑了失效因素发生的随机、模糊、中介等多种不确定性,将失效问题转化为联系数的运算与分析。重点介绍了利用集对分析法求解系统失效联系度的过程,客观地度量了系统失效概率和系统可靠性。将每个船舱当作一个子系统,建立了第三水密区的连锁失效结构,根据集对分析将失效联系包括失效同一、失效波动和失效对立,其决定了相邻子系统之间的失效联系程度。该体系为船舶消防系统评价研究提供一种新的尝试。According to the characteristics of ships,a cascade failure model of ship fire protection system is established by using fault tree. This model is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively using binary decision diagrams,which effectively avoids the problem of combinatorial explosion with computational complexity. The analysis result directly reflects the system chain failure path,determines the importance of each failure factor,and puts forward corresponding measures to reduce the occurrence of the ship fire system fragility. These data provide a theoretical basis for the failure prevention and safety management of ship fire protection system in our country. In practice,the lack of data and low accuracy are the main reasons for further research in this field. The application of set pair analysis method can make full use of the uncertain data to make up for the traditional shortcomings. The evaluation is more comprehensive and objective and reflects the fire safety level objectively. In this paper,many uncertainties such as stochastic,fuzzy and intermediary of failure factors are considered,and the failure problem is transformed into the operation and analysis of the connection number. This paper mainly introduces the process of using set pair analysis method to solve the system failure connection degree,and objectively measures the system failure probability and system reliability. Taking each cabin as a subsystem,the chain failure structure of the third watertight area is established. According to the set pair analysis,the failure relation includes the same failure, the failure fluctuation and the failure opposition, which determines the degree of failure connection between adjacent subsystems. The system provides a new attempt for the research of ship fire protection system evaluation.

关 键 词：消防系统 连锁性失效 故障树 失效概率 集对分析 失效关联 

分 类 号：U664.88[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]