载人潜水器坐底过程人因失效预测  

Research on method of human failure prediction in the process of landing manned submersibles

作　　者：张帅[1] 叶聪[2] 何卫平[1] 陈登凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学陕西省工业设计工程实验室,陕西西安710068 [2]中国船舶科学研究中心,江苏无锡214082

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报》2018年第2期290-296,共7页Journal of Harbin Engineering University

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划项目(2014AA09A110)

摘　　要：针对潜水器两种坐底模式对潜航员认知可靠性影响问题,本文采用人因可靠性分析方法研究坐底过程中系统、任务以及环境对潜航员的影响,结合深海任务环境分析载人潜水器典型人-机-环境特征,分析了两种坐底模式潜航员任务过程和认知过程,利用认知可靠性并串混联系统模型改进(cognitive reliability and error analysis method,CREAM)方法,并预测潜航员作业认知失效概率。计算结果显示:载人潜水器两种坐底模式潜航员认知过程差异性较小且失效概率均在可接受范围内,该方法的应用可为载人潜水器安全设计、人员培训、失误预测与可靠性评估提供理论支持。To ascertain the influence of the cognitive reliability of the aquanaut on two landing types of a manned submersible,this paper uses a human reliability analysis to research the human factor involved in the process of manned submersible landing. Research combined with the human-machine-environment characteristics of the manned submersible are used to analyze the oceanaut's task and cognitive process in two landing modes. The improved CREAM method is employed in a series and in a parallel hybrid system model of cognitive reliability,to predict the probability of cognitive failure in the oceanaut's operation. Results show similar cognitive differences with both landing types of the submersible and that the failure probability is acceptable. This paper represents theoretical support for manned submersibles with respect to security design,personnel training,accident prediction,and reliability evaluation.

关 键 词：载人潜水器 深海作业 人机环境 人因分析 坐底任务 失效预测 认知行为 人因可靠性分析 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]