基于SWAT模型的锦绣川流域土地利用和覆被变化的水文响应分析  

Hydrology Response Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Jinxiuchuan Basin Based on SWAT Model

作　　者：丛鑫[1] 孔珂[1] 王金童 徐征和[1] 李伟 

机构地区：[1]济南大学资源与环境学院,山东济南250022 [2]山东省水利工程总公司,山东济南250013 [3]济南市锦绣川水库管理处,山东济南250022

出　　处：《济南大学学报（自然科学版）》2017年第5期426-432,共7页Journal of University of Jinan(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划子课题(2015BAD20B02-05);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2012DL08);济南市社会民生重大专项项目(SHMS2015-3-01)

摘　　要：为了解决济南锦绣川流域土地利用变化显著的问题,保护济南泉水的重要补给区,研究流域土地利用和覆被变化的水文响应,构建建立SWAT模型所需的流域的土地利用数据库、土壤数据库以及2006—2012年的水文气象数据库,利用SWAT模型模拟流域径流过程并率定模型参数;通过遥感影像分析1988、1996、2002、2009、2014年夏季的系列土地利用和覆被变化,利用率定后的模型模拟降水条件相同而下垫面条件不同时的流域径流过程,定性评价流域土地利用和覆被变化的水文响应,并分析其影响因素。结果表明:SWAT模型可以较好地模拟研究区的径流过程,具有较强的适用性;土地利用变化会引起流域年径流总量与年内流量过程的变化,1988—2002年及2002—2014年流域地表径流分别增加了0.92%、0.66%;水体、道路、居民点用地面积大幅增加与草地面积减少是流域径流变化的主要原因。To solve the problem of significant change of land use in Jinxiuchuan basin in Jinan City, protect the important supply area of Jinan spring water, and study the hydrology response analysis of land use and land cover change, the basin land utilization database, soil database, and hydrometeorology database from 2006 to 2012 for establishment demand of the SWAT model were constructed. The model was used to simulate the process of basin and calibrate model parameters. The series of land use and land cover change in the summer of 1988, 1996, 2002, 2009, and 2014 were respectively ob- tained by the analysis of remote sensing image. Using the calibrated SWAT model, the runoff processes were simulated under the same climatic conditions and different underlying surface condition. The basin hydrology response from land use and land cover change was qualitatively evaluated, and the main influencing factors were analyzed. The results show that the SWAT model can simulate runoff process well in the study area, and it has strong practicability. The land use change can cause the change of quantity and process of annual runoff. The surface runoff of the basin from 1988 to 2002 and from 2002 to 2014 respectively increases by 0.92% and 0.66%. The main reasons for the change of runoff are the decrease of grassland area and the great increase of the area including water, roads, and resident.

关 键 词：SWAT模型 锦绣川流域 土地利用和覆被变化 径流模拟 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]