山西省2005-2012年人间布鲁菌病空间分布特征研究  

Spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Shanxi in 2005-2012

作　　者：王青芳 靳祯 王仲兵[3] 张文义[4] 

机构地区：[1]山西大学复杂系统研究所,山西太原030006 [2]山西大学数学科学学院 [3]山西省动物疫病预防控制中心 [4]中国人民解放军疾病预防控制所

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2017年第12期910-915,共6页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(11331009);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(11601292)

摘　　要：目的分析山西省2005-2012年人间布鲁菌病(简称布病)空间分布特征和流行规律,识别疾病高风险地区。方法建立山西省2005-2012年县级人间布病空间数据库,利用Arcgis 10.2软件对其进行趋势分析、全局空间自相关分析、聚类和异常值分析、热点分析等。结果趋势分析得到山西省布病发病数总体呈现从西到东、由南到北的上升趋势;2005-2012年布病分布空间呈正相关性(均Z>2.85,P<0.01);局部自相关分析显示,布病高值聚集和热点区域集中在山西省北部地区,主要包括大同市、朔州市、忻州市和晋中市。结论山西省布病发病呈现空间聚集性,热点区域比较集中,且有逐年扩大趋势。Objective To describe the spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Shanxi and to identify the areas with high incidence from 2005 to 2012. Methods The county-level spatial database of human brucellosis in Shanxi province from 2005 to 2012 was established.The trend analysis,global autocorrelation analysis,cluster and outlier analysis and hot spot analysis were performed by using Arcgis 10.2 software. ResultsTrend analysis showed that the incidence of brucellosis presented an up-word trend from west to east and from south to north,and a positive autocorrelation of brucellosis spatial distribution during the study period was noticed（Z 〉2.85,P〈0.01）.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the highly clustered and hot spot areas were in the north of Shanxi,including Datong,Shuozhou,Xinzhou and Jinzhong city. Conclusions The incidence of brucellosis shows significant spatial aggregation in Shanxi province with obvious hot spot areas which spread out annually.

关 键 词：布鲁菌病 地理信息系统 趋势分析 空间自相关分析 空间聚集性 热点分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R378.5[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]