沥青路面结构内部残余应变动态预测模型  

Dynamic Prediction Model of Residual Strain in Asphalt Pavement

作　　者：敬超 张金喜[1] 宋波[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124 [2]燕山大学建筑工程与力学学院,秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2017年第6期1251-1260,共10页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51478021);北京市自然科学基金重点项目(KZ201510005002);中央引导地方科技发展专项资助(Z161100004516014);秦皇岛市科学技术研究与发展计划项目(201101A162)

摘　　要：针对沥青路面结构内部残余应变在不同年份、不同季节月份及同一天的不同时段,数值变化较大,但却无法直接采集,难以有效预测的问题,通过在试验路路面结构内部埋置传感器,进行长期连续监测,并对获取的应变监测数据编制程序进行分析处理,得到残余应变数据,充分考虑数据的各种趋势特征和动态特征,建立基于时间序列方法的,并能对沥青路面结构内部残余应变进行精细化描述的动态预测模型,并以2015年10月~2016年3月的经处理后的实测数据对模型进行验证.结果表明,该模型预测结果稳定可靠,预测精度较高.The residual strain in asphalt pavement changes greatly from year to year,in different seasons and through different periods of the same day. However,the residual strain cannot be measured directly and is difficult to predict effectively. Therefore,in this article,we propose a method of monitoring residual strain data by continuously recording measurements with sensors embedded in the pavement and calculating the residual strain. Considering the various trends and dynamic characteristics of the data, a dynamic prediction model was established to precisely report the residual strain in asphalt pavement based on times-series approaches. The model is verified by analyzing predicted data recorded from Oct. 2015 to Mar. 2016 on a test road. The results indicate that the dynamic predictions of residual strain obtained using the proposed model are accurate,stable and reliable.

关 键 词：沥青路面 残余应变 预测 时间序列 状态矩阵 

分 类 号：U416.217[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]