基于马尔科夫方法的区域水交换研究  

Study of water exchange between regions based on the Markov method

作　　者：赵杨 张学庆[1] 辛力 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《水动力学研究与进展（A辑）》2017年第5期623-629,共7页Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2015CB453301);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2013ZX07202-007)~~

摘　　要：海洋中,在周期性潮流动力条件下,区域间的水体交换可近似认为满足马尔科夫性,利用该性质,可以快速有效地预测区域间的水交换问题。该文以渤海辽河口为研究区域,通过粒子跟踪方法得到区域间的概率传输矩阵,根据马尔科夫性,利用概率传输矩阵对辽河口水交换进行预测。研究表明,利用概率传输矩阵预测得到的水交换结果不仅与直接数值模拟吻合良好,还可极大缩减水体交换的计算模拟时间,因此对于长周期的预测,马尔科夫传输矩阵法比直接数值模拟更合理。The interregional water exchange in ocean has the Markov property under the periodic dynamic conditions. Such feature is effectively used to predict the water exchange process. The probability transportation matrix is calculated based on particle tracking model in the Liaohe Estuary. And then in terms of the Markov property, the water exchange is predicted by the matrix. It is indicated that the results forecasted by the probability transportation matrix fit well with the results obtained by the numerical simulation. The Markov transportation matrix approach is more reasonable than the numerical simulation method during long term simulation.

关 键 词：马尔科夫过程 EFDC模型 辽河口 概率传输矩阵 

分 类 号：P731.2[天文地球—海洋科学]