中国潜在财政危机思考——一个基于债务、赤字与总供给的分析框架  

The Consideration of Potential Financial Crisis in China——Based on the Analysis of Debt, Deficit and Aggregate Supply

作　　者：缪小林 

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学公共政策研究中心

出　　处：《财政研究》2017年第11期2-18,共17页Public Finance Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"公共财政安全监测预警机制研究"(12JZD031);国家自然科学基金地区科学基金"地方债风险时空转移及其系统性风险研究:风险源识别;路径机理与预警控制"(71763029);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金"地方政府债务风险动因挖掘与制度修正研究:基于权责时空分离下的责任转移预期模型"(71303207);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2017T100716)的资助

摘　　要：中国没有发生过财政危机,但也不能忽视其潜在财政危机。本文首先从理论层面揭示出,潜在财政危机存在与否,关键取决于政府债务或财政赤字是否有效促进社会总供给增加。进一步,本文利用中国1981-2014年宏观数据,采用VAR模型进行实证检验发现:第一,我国政府债务与财政赤字呈现发散的非均衡关系,政府债务通过加速财政支出扩张对财政赤字及政府债务自身积累产生倒逼促进作用,这意味着我国政府债务存在外生性,并驱动着财政赤字低效率;第二,通过对经济增长效应检验发现,财政赤字行为对劳动生产率、社会资本积累等驱动总供给的作用产生抑制,且外生性的政府债务在加速这种抑制,说明我国潜在财政危机存在。本文研究结论表明,与政府债务规模持续膨胀相伴随的是财政赤字在总供给方面的低效率和危害持续积累,对我国实体经济造成巨大压力和冲击,加强我国潜在财政危机防范刻不容缓。The Financial Crisis has never happened in China, but we can＇t ignore this problem. From a theoretical perspective, the existence of a potential financial crisis depends critically on whether government debt or fiscal deficit promotes aggregate supply effectively, then, from the empirical level, this paper uses the macroeconomic data from 1981 to 2014 in China and further uses VAR model to test these effects. The results indicate that, firstly, the relationship between government debt and fiscal deficit is divergent and unbalanced. The increase of fiscal spending will exacerbate the size of government debt, in other words, both of them show a positive promotion, which means that our government debt is exogenous and it will lead to inefficiency. Secondly, fiscal deficit will restrain the impact of labor productivity and social capital accumulation on the aggregate supply, and then, exogenous government debt accelerates this adverse effect. The above mentioned facts have proved that there exists potential financial crisis in China. The results of this paper show that, both the expansion of government debt and the inefficiency of fiscal deficit exist simultaneously, which brings great pressure and negative impacts on Chinese real economy, so it is important to strengthen the relevant prevention.

关 键 词：潜在财政危机 政府债务 财政赤字 总供给 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]