关税下降、进口贸易与财政收入效应研究  

The Research on the Effect of Chinese Tariff, Import and Fiscal Revenue

作　　者：樊勇 王婉如 蔡松锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财政税务学院 [2]国家信息中心经济预测部

出　　处：《财政研究》2017年第11期75-84,共10页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目"增值税制度效应的经济学分析"(15FJY001)的资助

摘　　要：随着经济全球化进程的深入,国际贸易竞争不断加剧,降低关税一般被认为是促进一国国际贸易,尤其是进口贸易发展的有效手段,但降低关税往往会受到政府财政收入能力的约束。本文在理论分析关税变动的财政收入效应基础上,基于GTAP第9版最新数据库模拟我国关税下降方案中的一种情况(即将我国进口关税平均水平降低至OECD国家平均关税水平),结果显示:(1)能够促进我国进口贸易,同时也能增加全球出口贸易活动。(2)对我国财政收入产生正向影响但这种影响作用十分小,其中初级产品以及最终产品税收收入是负向影响。(3)对采掘业、纺织业、轻工业与重工业的税收收入影响均为正向。(4)能增加实际产出,提高本国与全球社会福利水平。因此本文建议可以先降低轻工业、重工业等产业的关税税率,然后再逐步降低其他行业关税水平,弱化关税的财政收入职能,以适应经济新常态下的全球发展趋势。With the development of globalization, international trade competition has intensified, so the decease of tariff has always been taken to promote international trade, but it is bound by fiscal revenue. By applying custom revenue functions as starting points, we conduct mathematical simulation analysis of tax revenue changes with tariff reduction by GTAP model. If the average tariff rate is reduced into the average rate of OECD countries, we found that, firstly it will promote import and global export trade. Secondly, the impact of lower tariffs on government fiscal revenue is positive but very small, while the impact on primary and final products is negative. Thirdly, the impact on mining and extraction, textiles and clothing, light and heavy manufacturing industry is positive. Last, with the decrease of Chinese tariff rate, imports and actual output will rise as well as social welfare. We suggest that tariff of processed food, light and heavy manufacturing industry could be first deceased, then the tariff of other industry could be reduced gradually. Tariff revenue functions should be weakened to adapt global development.

关 键 词：关税 进口贸易 财政收入效应 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F745.0