近10年中国生猪产业回顾与未来展望  

Review of China's Pig Industry in the Past Decade and Its Prospect

作　　者：张剑波[1] 刘翌阳 陶炜煜[1] 孟阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国国际电子商务中心,北京100006

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第1期35-42,共8页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：近10年来,中国生猪产业呈现以下特征:养殖量先增后降,养殖收益是养殖量变化的主要动因;规模化养殖比例快速提高,养殖方式不断创新;生猪饲养水平显著增强,产出效率持续提高;2015年以后猪肉消费出现疲弱态势,但总体呈稳步增长态势,且淡旺季差距逐步缩小;猪肉进口成倍增长,出口基本稳定;生猪及猪肉价格整体呈上行态势。未来,随着环保门槛提高以及产业政策的引导,生猪产业规模化水平将继续提高,市场集中度不断增强;随着饲料、人工、防疫和环保等成本增加,生猪养殖综合成本呈上升趋势;猪肉在中国居民肉类消费中仍将占据主导地位;"长周期"市场波动特征将成为常态。最后,从发展适度规模养殖、适当增加猪肉进口、充分发挥市场调节机制3个方面提出了中国生猪产业的发展策略。In the past 10 years, China＇s pig industry had the following characteristics： culture quantity increased first and then descended, and breeding income was the main reason for the change of culture; the proportion of large-scale farming increased rapidly, and culture mode constantly innovated; the breeding level of pig enhanced significantly, and output efficiency continued to improve; there was a weak trend in pork consumption after 2015, but the overall growth trend was steady, and the gap between off season and boom season showed a shrinking trend; pork imports increased in multiples, and exports was basically stable; hog and pork prices were on the upward trends as a whole. In the future, with the improvement of environmental protection threshold and the guidance of industrial policy, the large-scale level of pig industry will continue to improve, and the market concentration will continue to enhance; with the increase in costs of feed, labor,epidemic prevention and environmental protection, the comprehensive cost of breeding pig will rise; pork consumption in China will continue to occupy the dominant position; the long-periodic characteristic of market volatility will become a normal. Finally, the authors put forward the development strategy of pig industry in China from three perspectives of developing appropriate scale farming, increasing pork imports and giving full play to market regulation mechanism.

关 键 词：生猪产业 供给 消费 贸易 市场 发展趋势 发展策略 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]