2009-2016年济南市手足口病发病热点及流行特征分析  

The hot spot and epidemiologic characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Jinan municipality, 2009-2016

作　　者：耿兴义[1] 王蔚茹[1] 常彩云[1] 张恬恬 张济[1] 

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心,250021

出　　处：《中华实验和临床病毒学杂志》2017年第6期492-497,共6页Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology

摘　　要：目的 明确2009-2016年济南市手足口病发病热点地区,掌握其流行特征.方法 利用济南市2009-2016年手足口病疫情报告资料,采用ArcGis 10.2进行街道/乡镇层级的热力、热点扫描,并进行可视化展现;采用聚类分析、描述性流行病学方法分析流行特征.结果 2009-2016年济南市累计报告手足口病89 486例,年均发病率为160.94/10万,发病水平逐年增长,全市范围内各县区均处于较高流行水平;发病呈单峰分布,发病高峰期出现在5～8月份,,最高峰多出现在6月份;报告重症病例115例,重症率0.13％.病例主要分布在1～4岁年龄组,占病例总数的81.51％;病例职业以散居儿童为主（60.36％）;高热力乡镇、街道连接呈环状围绕在核心城区周边,热点乡镇有增多趋势;肠道病毒71型（E V71）、柯萨奇病毒A16型（CVA16）和其他肠道病毒,分别占33.67％、37.22％和29.09％,各年度优势病原交替,重症病例以EV71为主.结论 济南市手足口病处于高度流行状态,重症率较低;单峰分布,夏季高发,季节性明显;1 ～4岁散居儿童是主要发病人群;城郊结合部高发,热点乡镇、街道有增多趋势;优势病原每年更迭.Objective To investigate the hot spots and epidemiologic characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease （HFMD） in Jinan municipality from 2009 to 2016.Methods Disease reports of HFMD in Jinan from 2009-2016 were collected and analyzed with ArcGis 10.2 to show the hot spot in different villages and towns,as well as clustering analysis and descriptive epidemiology to show epidemiologic characteristics.Results A total of 89 486 HFMD cases were reported and the reported annual incidence rate was 160.94/100000 during the 7-year period,which increased year by year,and within the whole city,each county was at a higher epidemic level;the curve of incidence is unimodal and the incidence peak occurred mostly between May and August,especially in June;115 severe cases were reported and the ratio was 0.13％.Of the reported cases,81.51％ were between 1 to 4 years old;60.36 ％ were children living scattered.The hot spots were like a circle surrounding the core areas,showing a tendency of increase;the proportion of EV71,CVA16 and other enteroviruses were 33.67％ 、37.22％ and 29.09％,respectively,and they appeared in turn,but severe cases were mostly affected by EV71.Conclusions The HFMD in Jinan is in a highly prevalent level,with low ratio of severe cases.Seasonal（high in summer） and unimodal;more common among children between 1 to 4 years old,living scatted and in urban and rural linking areas,with the tendency of increasing of hot spots;prevalent pathogens appear in turn.

关 键 词：手足口病 流行特征 热点图 热力图 聚类分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R725.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]