邻避冲突事件预警指标体系与评价模型研究  

Research on Early-warning Indicator System and Assessment of NIMBY Conflicts

作　　者：钟慧玲[1] 王程远 张冠湘[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广州510006

出　　处：《广州大学学报（社会科学版）》2017年第12期19-26,共8页Journal of Guangzhou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BGL139)

摘　　要：文章根据邻避冲突事件的特点,从地区发展情况、舆论情况、设施负面影响、公共行政决策、群众心理状况五个维度构建了邻避冲突事件预警指标体系。其中当地的发展情况和邻避设施的负面影响是预警的关键指标,并利用模糊综合评价法进行邻避冲突事件的预警评价。实例验证中通过选取广东茂名反对PX游行作为案例进行预警,验证了预警模型的可行性与有效性,并提出以下建议:政府应在邻避设施选址决策中,决策前期考虑选址点的地区发展情况,并对邻避设施的负面影响作出明确的阐释;决策过程中加强过程的公开透明、鼓励公众参与,降低邻避冲突事件的警情风险。In recent years, the public conflicts caused by NIMBY （Not In My Backyard） facility occur fre- quently, which has caused adverse social impact. How to prevent the NIMBY conflicts from happening arouses deci- sion makers＇ great concern. But due to the locality, centrality and social conformism of NIMBY conflicts, the com- mon early-warning system cannot work. In this paper we analyzed the causes and impacting factors according to the NIMBY conflicts＇ characteristics, and derived a forewarning index system of NIMBY conflicts. Then the fuzzy com- prehensive evaluation was used to evaluate the result. Taking the Maoming PX event as a case, this paper proved the feasibility and validity of early-warning model.

关 键 词：邻避冲突事件 指标体系 预警模型 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]