中国人口老龄化会减少住房需求吗?  

Will Aging of Population Reduce Housing Demand?

作　　者：丁洋[1] 郑江淮[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029 [2]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《中国软科学》2018年第2期68-77,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：北京市中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心项目;北京市社会科学基金项目"北京推进供给侧结构性改革问题研究"(项目编号:16GLAL004);教育部2011中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心子项目"认识;适应和引领经济新常态研究"

摘　　要：一般认为,人口老龄化会减少住房需求,但我们发现,在人口老龄化的开始阶段,住房需求非但不会减少还会增加,只有当老龄化达到一定程度时,需求才会下降。利用中国2005-2015年的宏观数据可以证明,随老龄化率提高,住宅成交套数一开始确实是增加的,只有当65岁以上人口占比达到18%时,才开始减少。由此推算,至少在未来20年内,老龄化都是刺激而不是减少住房需求的。这个结论具有重要意义,它提醒我们,不要指望人口老龄化来自动平抑住宅价格,房地产调控须臾不能放松,同时要引导好老年人的住房需求。It is generally believed that the aging of population will reduce housing demand, but we find that in the initial stage of population aging, housing demand will not only decrease but also increase. Only when the aging reaches a certain level, will the demand decrease. Using China＇s macro data for 2005 -2015 years, it can be proved that with the increase of aging rate, the number of residential transactions is increasing at the very beginning. Only when the ratio of population over 65 reaches 18%, does it begin to decrease. Based on this, at least in 20 years, aging is a stimulus rather than a reduction in housing demand. This conclusion has important significance, it reminds us that we shouldn＇ t expect the aging of population to stabilize housing prices, real estate regulation shouldn＇ t relax, at the same time, we should guide the housing needs of the elderly.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 住房需求 倒U型 

分 类 号：C913.31[经济管理]