中国货币政策反应规则研究——基于核心通货膨胀视角  

Research on Responses to Chinese Monetary Policies:A Study of Core Inflation

作　　者：丁剑平[1] 蔚立柱 陆长荣 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [2]中山大学国际关系学院,广东广州510220

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2018年第1期9-21,共13页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA031);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(17YJCZH117)

摘　　要：次贷危机以来,越来越多国家的央行用核心通货膨胀来取代通货膨胀作为货币政策目标。借助开放经济新凯恩斯模型,将国际收支余额纳入央行福利损失函数,通过一阶条件得到最优利率规则,考察核心通货膨胀在最优利率规则中的作用,并运用GMM法比较分析盯住核心通货膨胀与通货膨胀的货币政策反应,研究得出:与通货膨胀相比,盯住核心通货膨胀能避免利率过度调整,减少中国人民银行福利损失,能降低美联邦基准利率对中国人民银行基准利率的冲击;此外,外汇市场干预系数与实际汇率系数在核心通货膨胀目标与通货膨胀目标的政策反应中呈现不同的特征。因此,中国人民银行应该构建一个官方的、适应中国经济结构的核心通货膨胀序列,基于该序列的货币政策反应规则对合理引导市场预期,稳定国内金融系统大有裨益。Since the subprime mortgage crisis ,more and more countries＇ central banks have replaced inflation with core inflation as their monetary policy obj^tive. With the advantages con- ferred by the new Keynesian open economy models, the balance of payments is integrated into the welfare loss function of central banks, and the optimal interest rate is obtained through the use of first -order conditions. This study examined the role of core inflation in the optimal interest -rate rule, using the generalized method of moments （GMM） method to compare and analyze monetary policy responses to core inflation and inflation. It was discovered that compared to inflation, peg- ging monetary policies to core inflation can prevent excessive adjustments to interest rates, reduce welfare loss for the People＇s Bank of China, and reduce the impact of the U. S. federal benchmark interest rate on the benchmark interest rate of the People＇s Bank of China. In addition, it was found that the policy responses of the foreign exchange market intervention coefficient and the re- al exchange rate coefficient have different characteristics than the core inflation and inflation tar- gets. Therefore,the People＇s Bank of China should propose a sequence of official core inflation targets suitable for the Chinese economic structure. Monetary policy responses based on this sequence of targets will rationally guide market expectations and generate benefits through the stabilization of the domestic financial system.

关 键 词：核心通货膨胀 货币政策规则 国际收支 央行干预 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]