林芝地区小麦条锈菌与气象因子的关系及流行动态模型的构建  

Interaction between Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici and meteorological factors and the model construction of temporal dynamic

作　　者：巩文峰 帅玉婷 马占鸿[2] 

机构地区：[1]西藏农牧学院植物科学学院,林芝860000 [2]中国农业大学植物病理学系,北京100193

出　　处：《植物保护学报》2018年第1期167-172,共6页Journal of Plant Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFD0300702;2016YFD0201302);西藏农牧学院作物学科建设项目(2016ZWXKJS)

摘　　要：为了解西藏林芝地区气象因子对小麦条锈病的影响及其流行动态,2016年采用五点取样法对林芝地区小麦条锈病的发病情况进行监测,通过相关性分析、逐步回归C(p)统计法和线性回归等方法,分析了病情指数与气象因子的关系,并结合时间和病情指数建立了病害预测模型。结果表明,在林芝地区,温度X_1、湿度X_2均与小麦条锈病病情指数Y呈极显著相关,降雨量X_3与病情指数Y呈显著相关;线性回归方程为:Y=-482.5991+19.7494X1+3.7974X2-0.8439X3。根据模拟情况选择的病害流行动态方程为Y=1/e^((0.914t+0.385)),决定系数为0.952,模型的拟合效果较好,表明该模型能够为林芝地区小麦条锈病的预测预报提供有效的参考依据。To understand the meteorological factors affecting the stripe rust in wheat and its epidemiology in Linzhi, Tibet, the incidence of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici was investigated with five point sampling method, and the relationship between the disease index and meteorological factors was studied with using correlation analysis, stepwise regression and linear regression analysis. The results showed that there was highly significant positive correlation among temperature, relative humidity and the disease index. Significant positive correlation between the disease index and rainfall was found. The equation of linear regression was Y=-482.5991 ＋ 19.7494 X_1＋ 3.7974 X_2-0.8439 X_3. According to the date and disease index, the disease prediction models were constructed, and the regression equation was Y=1/e^（（0.914 t ＋ 0.385））with R square value was 0.952, indicating that this model could well reflect the temporal dynamic of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici in Linzhi.

关 键 词：小麦条锈病 流行动态 气象因子 预测模型 

分 类 号：S435.121.42[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]