基于空间计量模型的甘肃省耕地流转价格研究  

Study on cultivated land transfer price in Gansu province based on spatial econometric model

作　　者：杜挺[1,2] 朱道林[1,2] 张立新[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]国土资源部农用地质量与监控重点实验室,北京100193

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2018年第3期56-62,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国土资源部专项研究项目(20160205)资助

摘　　要：文中以县为基本单元,通过探索性空间数据分析、相关分析和空间计量模型揭示了甘肃省耕地流转价格的空间分布规律及其形成机制。研究表明:甘肃省耕地流转价格在全局空间特征上呈现"西高东低、北高南低"的态势,并表现出显著的"高高-低低"聚类特征;相关分析发现,耕地流转价格与耕地平均质量等别、第一产业比重、粮食播种面积比例、户均耕地面积存在统计和空间上的显著负相关,而与GDP、城镇化率、财政收入、人均GDP、农民人均纯收入存在统计和空间上的显著正相关;空间计量分析显示,耕地平均质量等别对耕地流转价格产生了显著的负向作用,GDP和农民人均纯收入对耕地流转价格产生了显著的正向作用,说明区域耕地质量和社会经济条件的差异是导致耕地流转价格空间分异的主要动力。Taking county as the basic unit,the spatial differentiation and influence factors of cultivated land transfer price in Gansu Province were explored by ESDA analysis,correlation analysis and spatial econometric model. The results showed that cultivated land transfer price,which was significantly positive spatial autocorrelation,decreased from west to east and from north to south in Gansu Province. Meanwhile,according to the correlation analysis,the factors,that included the gradation of agricultural land,the proportion of primary industry,the proportion of the area sown to grain,and the average cultivated land area were negatively correlated with cultivated land transfer price; and other factors such as GDP,urbanization rate,revenues,GDP per capita and rural per capita net income,were positively correlated with it. Spatial econometrics analysis indicated that the gradation of agricultural land had a significant negative effect on cultivated land transfer price,and GDP as well as rural per capita net income had a significant positive effect on the price of cultivated land. It showed that the difference of cultivated land quality and social economic condition was the main driving force of the spatial differentiation of cultivated land transfer price.

关 键 词：甘肃省 耕地流转价格 探索性空间数据分析 相关分析 空间计量模型 

分 类 号：F301.4[经济管理—产业经济]