福寿螺在中国的潜在地理分布区预测  

Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution Area of Golden Apple Snail (Pomacea canaliculata) in China

作　　者：杨海芳 杨姗萍 王沛[3] 周卫川[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国湿地博物馆,浙江杭州310013 [2]福建农林大学,福建福州350002 [3]福建出入境检验检疫局,福建福州350001

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2018年第3期70-73,共4页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：中国湿地博物馆科技项目(CWM2017-W02);福建省农业科技重大专项(2017NZ0003-1);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFF0210304);国家自然科学基金项目(31372162)

摘　　要：根据影响福寿螺地理分布的温度、降水等关键气候因子阀值、有效积温法则和生物气候相似距方法,应用气候数据库、计算机程序设计语言和地理信息系统软件,构建了福寿螺地理分布预测模型,并以我国670个基准气象站点1951~1980年的气候资料运行该模型,结果表明:福寿螺可在中国52.09%气象站点所代表的地区发生,面积约2563000km^2,并将福寿螺在中国的风险等级区划为安全区、轻度危险区、危险区和高度危险区,其中危险区和高度危险区占气象站点所代表的地区40.00%,约1957000 km^2。According to the thresholds of some key climatic factors （ temperature, rainfall, etc.） affecting the geographicaldistribution of golden apple snail （Pomacea canaliculata Lamarck） , by using the effective accumulated temperature rule, the bio？logical climate similar distance method, the climate database, computer program design language, and GIS software, the authorconstructed the prediction model for the potential geographical distribution of golden apple snail. This model was run and verifiedby using the meteorological data of 670 weather sites in China during 1951 ～ 1980. The results showed that P. canaliculata couldcolonize in 52.09% of regions represented by the above weather sites in China, about 2563000 km2. The potential geographicaldistribution of P. canaliculata in China was divided into the following four regions： safe region, low-risk region, risk region andhigh-risk region, and the last two regions accounting for 40.00%, about 1957000 km2.

关 键 词：福寿螺 生物入侵 地理分布 预测模型 

分 类 号：S966.282[农业科学—水产养殖]