2016—2050年中国城镇化水平预测  

Prediction of Urbanization Level in China:2016-2050

作　　者：乔文怡 李玏 管卫华 王馨 王晓歌 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院 [2]清华大学建筑学院 [3]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心

出　　处：《经济地理》2018年第2期51-58,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学重点基金项目(41430635);国家自然科学基金项目(41271128、41329001);国家自然科学基金重大项目(41590844);清华大学自主科研计划项目(2015THZ01)

摘　　要：根据党的“十八大”和国家“十三五”规划纲要，城镇化已经列人到2020年国家全面建成小康社会的重要任务。文章通过构建中国城镇化系统动力学模型，该模型充分考虑了经济、人口、社会服务等关键因素，并运用1998—2015年的数据进行历史检验和灵敏度分析，证实了该模型具有良好的复制能力和强壮性。通过对不同情景模式的仿真，可以发现，计划生育政策对城镇化水平的影响最大，其次为GDP增长率，能源消费的影响最小。不管何种情况下，在2035年中国城镇化率将达到71％～73％之间，2050年将达到76％～79％之间，即2035年中国将进入城镇化发展的平缓阶段。城镇化规模中，内生人口与迁入人口的比重在2035年稳定在1：1左右，2050年保持在l～1．24之间。According to the third plenary session of the 18th central committee of the ommunist and the 13th national five- year plan, urbanization has been a important task of a all- round well- off society in 2020.But how will China＇s urbanization develop in the future？What is the level of urbanization in China that tends to be stable？ What is the proportion of the endogenous population and the immigrant population in the scale of urbanization？ These questions need to be scientifically answered.So this paper constructs the dynamic model of urbanization system of China.The model takes fully into account the key factors of economy, population and social service.Then we use the 1998-2015 years of data for historical and sensitivity analysis to verify that the model has good reproduction and robustness.Last,through the simulation of different situational patterns,we can find that the policy degree of family planning has the most influence on urbanization level, followed by GDP growth rate and least influence of energy consumption.The rate of urbanization in China will reach 71%-73% in 2035,and it will reach 76%-79% in 2050 under no circumstances.So we can conclude that China will enter the gentle stage of urbanization development in 2035.And the proportion of endogenous and immigrant population stabilized at around 1 ： 1 in 2035 years, and 2050 years remained between 1-1.24 in the scale of urbanization.

关 键 词：城镇化 系统动力学 情景仿真 平稳阶段 中国 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]