丝路经济带背景下我国西北地区城市脆弱性的空间分异与影响因素  

The Spatial Differentiation and Determinants of Urban Vulnerability in Northwest China under the Background of the Silk Road Economic Belt

作　　者：李海玲 马蓓蓓 薛东前[1,2] 江军 刘精慧[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,中国陕西西安710119 [2]地理国家级实验教学示范中心〈陕西师范大学〉,中国陕西西安710119

出　　处：《经济地理》2018年第2期66-73,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家科技基础性工作专项(2014FY210100);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41301170);陕西省软科学项目(2015KRM147)

摘　　要：依据脆弱性评价的“暴露性一敏感性一适应能力”准则，将丝路经济带战略下的快速全球化、工业化和城镇化作为外部扰动风险，采用TOPSIS法对当前我国西北地区丝路沿线城市的综合脆弱性和资源、生态环境、经济、社会等分要素脆弱性进行评价，探讨其空间分异、要素关联、影响因素及与城市类型的耦合关系。结果表明，西北地区城市综合脆弱性属于高度脆弱，非均衡特征明显，随着丝路经济带的向西推进呈倒“U”型曲线，高度脆弱区集中在西北地区中部。社会和生态环境脆弱性对综合脆弱性影响较大，经济与社会要素的正向耦合关系显著，“资源诅咒”风险较强；表征系统现状稳定性的敏感性指向指标对城市脆弱性影响较大，以水资源约束为主的自然条件、资源型产业、城市规模和行政级别是影响西北地区城市脆弱性的关键因素。The Silk Road Economic Belt Initiative will put cities along it at a risky external disturbance of rapid globalization, industrialization and urbanization. Based on the criteria of ＂Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity＂ in vulnerability assessment, this study evaluates the comprehensive vulnerability and sub-element vulnerabilities on resource, eco-environment, economy and society of cities along the Silk Road Economic Belt in Northwest China. The method of TOPSIS is adopted, and the purpose is to explore spatial differentiation, elements linkage, determinants, and coupling relationship between vulnerability and city types. The results show that urban comprehensive vulnerability in Northwest China is high and the spatial non-equilibrium is obvious. The urban comprehensive vulnerability is showing an inverse U- shaped curve with the westward extension of the Silk Road Economic Belt, and the most serious vulnerable areas are concentrated in the middle of Northwest China. Social vulnerability and eco-environmental vulnerability have a greater impact on comprehensive vulnerability, and the positive coupling between economic and social vulnerability is significant. There are significant opposite coupling relationships between resources vulnerability and vulnerabilities of the other sub-elements, which showing a high-risk ＂resource curse＂ in the future. The sensitivity indexes which represent the existing stability of urban internal system play a great role in assessing of urban vulnerability. Water resource, resource-based industries, urban scale and hierarchy are the key factors influencing urban vulnerability in Northwest China.

关 键 词：丝路经济带 城市脆弱性 西北地区 空间分异 影响因素 TOPSIS法 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]