税收政策不确定性与地区经济波动——基于中国市级面板数据的实证检验  

The Uncertainty of Tax Policy and Regional Economic Fluctuation:An Empirical Test Based on the City-level Panel Data of China

作　　者：龚旻[1] 甘家武[2] 蔡娟 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院财政金融学院,长沙430072 [2]云南财经大学国际工商学院,昆明650221

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2018年第3期13-24,共12页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71703037;71663055);中国博士后基金面上一等项目(2017M610103);湖南省哲学社会科学项目(17YBQ061);云南省哲学社会科学规划项目(YB2017015)

摘　　要：税收竞争无序化导致地方税收政策环境难以稳定,企业面临政策不确定风险会改变投资决策,侵蚀了地区经济稳定增长的基础。通过中国284个地级市2004~2013年面板数据构建的面板向量自回归模型发现,地方税收政策的不确定性通过投资波动扩大了中国地区经济波动的程度,这一冲击5年时间才衰减完毕。并且商品劳务税政策相对企业所得税政策对地区经济的冲击更大。同时,相对于经济环境较好时期,在经济恶化时期税收政策不确定性对地区经济波动的影响更大,这在企业所得税政策中表现显著。这一结论为通过财税制度改革形成稳定的税收政策环境提供了经验支撑。The disordering of tax competition makes the local tax policy environment become unstable, and companies often change their investment decisions when facing risks from uncertain policies. This finally erodes the foundation of regional economy to growth stably. The paper con- structs a panel vector autoregressive model by using the panel data of 284 county - level cities from 2004 to 2013, and the results show that the uncertainty of local tax policy has expanded the degree of regional economic fluctuation in China through investment fluctuation, and the impact had a five -year reduction period. Furthermore, the commodity labor tax policy has a greater effect on re- gional economy relative to the business income tax policy. What＇s more, compared with the time with better economic environment, the uncertainty of tax policy in economic deterioration period has greater impact on regional economic fluctuation, which performs significantly in business in- come tax policy. The conclusion provides empirical support for the formation of a stable tax policy environment through fiscal and taxation reform.

关 键 词：税收政策不确定性 地区投资 地区经济波动 经济境况 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]