评美国人口专家论证“饿死三千万”的方法和结论  

On the Methodology of US Demographers for the Conclusion of “30 Million Starved to Death” during the Difficult Three Year Period

作　　者：黄卫东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院

出　　处：《世界社会主义研究》2018年第1期74-80,共7页World Socialism Studies

摘　　要：长期以来,西方学界和我国的一些人采用美国人口学家的说法,即在中国三年困难时期,有三千万人因饥饿至死。通过分析美国知名人口学家科尔在其相关报告中提供的数据和计算方法,我们发现,美国人口学家在论证"饿死三千万"的过程中存在虚增出生人数、夸大死亡人数的作假行为,而其用于估算"饿死"人数的"超线性死亡"理论也受到国内外学者的广泛而且严重的质疑,既不客观,也不科学。因此"饿死三千万"的说法根本不可信。我国学者和媒体对于西方所谓的"公认"的说法和论断,应采用科学的方法和手段对其加以验证,切不可盲目偏信,因此质疑中国社会主义建设的成就。The idea that 30 million people were starved to death during the difficult three year period in China has long been accepted by Western academia as well as some Chinese scholars. An analysis of the data and methodology in the related reports by well-known US demographer Coale demonstrates acts of falsification in terms of artificially increasing birth numbers and exaggerating death numbers. His theory of "super linear deaths"for estimating "number of people starved to death"has also been seriously challenged in China and around the world for being neither objective nor scientific. The statement of "30 million starved to death"is therefore not a reliable one. With this case,we suggest that Chinese scholars and media should have their own testing of the "universally accepted"statements or assertions in the West with scientific method. We should avoid such blind trust of the West and the bias against the achievements of China's socialist construction on that basis.

关 键 词：大饥荒 饿死三千万 科尔 超线性死亡 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学]