中美战略稳定关系的演进  

The Evolution of Sino-U.S. Strategic Stability

作　　者：鹿音[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防大学战略研究所

出　　处：《当代美国评论》2017年第2期20-38,121-122,共19页Contemporary American Review

摘　　要：经典战略稳定理论主要围绕美苏战略武器关系而形成。中美战略稳定既是一个新概念,也是一种延续的状态。2010年,美国官方报告中开始出现"中美战略稳定"的描述,在官方层面将战略稳定用于中美关系,这是一个全新的提法。中美之间围绕核武器形成的战略稳定关系实际上是长期存在的状态,在中美关系中虽然没有处于突出的地位,但是对于中美两国,特别是建交后中美关系的稳定发展至关重要。建构中美战略稳定关系不仅应服务于双边关系大局,而且要包含中美军事与安全互信、有利于中美战略稳定的核政策、双方都认可相互脆弱性、在力量建设上确保双方的核报复或核反击能力等要素。中美之间建立新型战略稳定框架是探索新型国家关系的必经之路。本文重点梳理中美之间的战略稳定关系,探讨其发展状态、影响因素和衡量标准,并就中美之间的新型战略稳定框架提出建议。The classic theory of strategic stability is mostly centered on thenuclear relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union.Such a term was not applied to Sino-U.S.relations either in the Cold War era or after the end of the Cold War,even though that is an existing reality for the past several decades.Strategic stability was first mentioned in both U.S.missile defense and nuclear posture review in 2010.Yet this concept has not been clearly defined,nor has it been assigned priority in bilateral relations.Nevertheless,it is of great significance for the stable development of bilateral relations.This paper examines key factors that have influenced Sino-U.S.strategic stability,proposes criteria for assessing this stability,and offers a framework for a new type of strategic stability.

关 键 词：中美关系 战略稳定 核战略 核威慑 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]