2018年国内外宏观经济形势分析及预判  被引量:1

Analysis and Forecast of 2018 Macro-economic Situation at Home and Abroad

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作  者:赵小辉[1] 李霞[1] 仇欢[1] 王守春[1] 王睿[1] Zhao Xiaohui;Li Xia;Qiu Huan;Wang Shouchun;Wang Rui(Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute, Beijing 100029, China)

机构地区:[1]中国石油化工集团公司经济技术研究院,北京100029

出  处:《当代石油石化》2018年第2期11-16,共6页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today

摘  要:2017年世界经济复苏力度增强,全年达到3%。预计2018年仍将延续上升势头。其中,美国经济2017年强劲复苏,增速可能略超2017年的2.2%。2018年美元指数高位震荡加剧,走势可能为先弱后强再弱。2017年中国经济稳中向好,GDP增长6.9%,7年来增速首次回升,2018年经济迈向高质量发展,预计出口保持较快增长,投资增速趋稳回升,经济延续稳中求进发展态势,增速位于6.6%~6.8%之间。中国货币政策将保持稳健中性,总体偏紧。人民币兑美元汇率双向宽幅波动将加大,大致集中在6.2~6.6。未来中国石油石化行业将面临融资成本增加,汇率风险上升,国际油价震荡态势加剧的严峻形势。The world economy has enjoyed a strengthened and synchronized recovery in 2017, with growth rate reaching 3% for the whole year. 2018 is expected to keep the upward trend, with U.S. economy growth rate likely to be slightly higher than 2.2% of 2017 when a strong recovery already has achieved there. In 2018, the U.S. dollar index is likely to be more volatile at high level, going from weak through strong, and to week again. In 2017, China's economy maintained stable growth and grew 6.9%, marking the first GDP acceleration for 7 years. Looking into 2018, China's economy is moving toward high-quality development, and will continue to make progress while ensuring stability, with expected growth rate between 6.6%~6.8%, rapid export growth and rallying investment growth. China's monetary policy will keep prudent and neutral, but slightly tight in general. More two-way volatility in RMB/U.S. dollar exchange rate is expected, mainly ranging from 6.2 to 6.6. In the future, China's petroleum and petrochemical industry will face grim situation of increased financing cost, rising exchange rate risk and aggravated oil price volatility.

关 键 词:经济复苏 发展质量 加息 汇率 

分 类 号:F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F426.7

 

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