2006—2015年江苏省煤工尘肺发病特征及其发病趋势的灰色数列预测  

Epidemiological characteristics of coal workers' pneumoconiosis during 2006—2015 in Jiangsu Province and trend predicted by the grey dynamics model GM

作　　者：王迅 韩磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市嘉定区疾病预防控制中心,上海201800 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《职业卫生与应急救援》2017年第6期510-512,535,共4页Occupational Health and Emergency Rescue

基　　金：江苏省青年医学人才项目(编号:QNRC2016536)

摘　　要：[目的]分析江苏省2006—2015年间煤工尘肺的发病特征及规律,并对发病趋势进行预测,进一步加强煤工尘肺的防治和管理。[方法]查阅江苏省疾病预防控制中心的统计数据,对2006—2015年间江苏省煤工尘肺进行人口学特征分析,再根据灰色系统理论建立灰色数列GM(1.1)预测模型,预测未来三年江苏省煤工尘肺发病趋势。[结果]江苏省2006—2015年间煤工尘肺新发病例1270例,2010年新发病例数最多(307例,占24.2%)。主要接尘年代为1970—1980年间,接尘工龄为20~30年。多分布在5个工种:纯掘进工、主掘进工、纯采煤工、主采煤工和煤矿混合工。主要分布在5个地区:徐州、南京、无锡、盐城和镇江。发病年龄主要分布在51~60岁。根据灰色数列预测模型得出时间响应方程为Y^_((t+1))=-241.62945 e^(-0.22353t)+295.62945,预测2016—2018年间江苏省煤工尘肺新发病例数分别为20例、16例、13例。[结论]江苏省未来三年内煤工尘肺的发病趋势可能呈现下降态势,但是发病形势依然严峻,需进一步加强管理。[Objective] To analyze the characteristics of coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis from 2006 to 2015 in Jiangsu Province,and to predict the incidence trend in coming years and further to strengthen the prevention and management of coal workers ＇pneumoconiosis. [Methods] The data collected by Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention was used,the demographic characteristics of coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis cases in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed. The grey dynamics model GM（1.1）was established to predict the trend of coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis in Jiangsu Province in the next three years. [Results] There were 1270 cases of coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis reported in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2015. Totally 307 new cases（accounting for 24.2%） were reported in 2010. Most cases had a history of exposure to coal mine dust during 1970 to 1980 with time for 20 to 30 years. Most cases were engaged in driving,coal extraction or comprehensive job in the coal mine. They were mainly distributed in Xuzhou,Nanjing,Wuxi,Yancheng and Zhenjiang cities. The age of onset varied from 50 to 60 years old. The time response equation Y^_（（t＋1））=-241.62945 e^（-0.22353t）＋ 295.62945,was obtained according to the Grey Dynamics Model GM（1.1）. It indicated that new cases of coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis will be 20,16 and 13 from 2016—2018 in Jiangsu Province. [Conclusion] The incidence trend of coal workers＇ pneumoconiosis in Jiangsu Province in the next three years may be declining,but the incidence is still serious and more management work should be further strengthened.

关 键 词：煤工尘肺 灰色数列模型 GM(1.1) 时间响应方程 发病趋势 

分 类 号：R135.2[医药卫生—劳动卫生]