日本第48届众议院选举与修宪走向  

On the Election of the 48^(th) House of Representatives in Japan and the Trend of Amending the Constitution

作　　者：田凯 李畅然[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心 [2]辽宁大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《日本研究》2017年第4期20-27,共8页Japan Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"战后日本修宪史研究"(项目编号:15CSS015);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目"日本外交战略走向研究"(项目编号:L13DGJ014)

摘　　要：2017年10月,日本举行了第48届众议院选举。安倍晋三率自民党夺下284席而赢得大选。"突袭"解散的策略及在野党的分裂是自民党大胜的重要原因。希望之党成立后,民进党宣布与之合并。然而,小池百合子将赞成修宪等作为入党条件,这迫使民进党左派结成立宪民主党。希望之党虽以反安倍为口号,其竞选纲领却与自民党并无大差,加之小池的"排除的逻辑"与不参选,导致了希望之党的失势。相反,立宪民主党因其鲜明的反修宪立场吸收了左翼选民,一跃成为最大在野党。而能否建设好民众基础并提出更吸引中间选民的方案是其对抗自民党的关键。大选后,虽然安倍会加速修宪的进程,但是面对修宪势力内部见解的不一致,如何纠集修宪势力以实现自卫队入宪方案仍面临很大挑战。Japan held the 48^th House of Representatives election in October, 2017. Under the leadership of Shinzo Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party has won by obtaining 284 seats. The ＂raid＂ dissolution strategy and the split of the opposition parties are the main contributors to the success of Liberal Democratic Party. After the founding of the Party of Hope, the Democratic Party announced a merger with it. However, Yuriko Koike demands the consent of constitutional amendment as a condition of merger, which forced the left wing of the Democratic Party to form the Constitutional Democratic Party. Although the Party of Hope is taking an anti-Abe position, its campaign platform is quite similar with that of the Liberal Democratic Party. This plus Yuriko Koike＇ s ＂logic of exclusion＂ and not running for the election, have led to the party＇ s decline. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party won the support of left wing voters by its unequivocal position of opposing to the constitutional amendment, and thus became the major opposition. The key to fight against the Liberal Democratic Party is to build a strong mass foundation and to propose policies that are appealing to the swing voters. After the election, Abe will speed up the process of constitutional amendment. Yet facing the inconsistency within the pro-amendment group, how to assemble the power to add clauses to the Self-Defense Forces is still a challenge for the Abe government.

关 键 词：安倍晋三 选举 修宪 日本政治 自民党 立宪民主党 

分 类 号：D521[政治法律—政治学]