中国资本项目自由化政策及其对经济增长的影响分析  

China's capital account liberalization policy and its impact on economic growth

作　　者：严安冬 

机构地区：[1]南加州大学经济学院,美国洛杉矶90007

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2018年第1期69-76,共8页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJY077);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2015SJB136)

摘　　要：研究了中国以往一段时期的资本项目自由化政策,并对其是否带来经济增长进行了实证分析。研究发现:一方面,金融管制逐渐放宽的趋势在一定时期内对一国或地区经济增长有正向的积极影响;另一方面,金融开放会降低一国或地区资本成本而提升投资增长率,并且资本项目逐步自由化的过程有助于股票市场的发展。最后提出中国政府应明确改革目标、坚守战略定力、系统规划路径、健全风险监控体系,以循序渐进地推进人民币资本项目自由化及实现人民币国际化。This paper analyzes whether capital account liberalization could cause economy growth in the specific context of China. Due to the gradual style in implementing policies,it is more complicated to measure China＇s financial openness situation. To measure the intensity of capital account liberalization,a newly invented hybrid index is adopted which incorporates both de jure and de facto measurements based on information from IMF＇s AERARE and China＇s capital transaction composition. Depending on the hybrid index and theoretical models developed in the previous literature,the empirical analysis on the capital account liberalization author is conducted as well as investment growth. It is found unclear whether capital account liberalization has a significant effect on economy growth,but the direction of such an effect should be positive for the economy. Due to lack of a broad database,my conclusion on capital account liberalization could cause investment boom is limited; on the other hand,it shows the capital account opening process contributes to a better stock market performance,which suggests financial openness could decrease the cost of capital and increase investment growth.

关 键 词：资本项目自由化 股票市场 金融开放 宏观经济 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]