确定性等价折现研究进展  

Advances in Certainty Equivalent Discounting Research

作　　者：罗兰兰 陈收[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第9期1-7,共7页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(71790593);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(71521061);国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(71501065)

摘　　要：以Weitzman为代表的学者研究表明,在跨期投资决策成本收益分析中,采取递减折现结构最为合理,其研究成果受到学术界的广泛关注,并被多国采纳。递减折现结构理论主要是以确定性等价折现方式展开研究,确定性等价折现从提出到推广经历了各种质疑和争论。该文梳理了确定性等价折现研究形成过程,并重点从资本产出率不确定性导致递减折现率这一角度对确定性等价折现研究进行文献综述,以该折现理论形成发展过程为主线,剖析了关于期望净现值准则和伽马分布假设的争议对该理论研究推动作用。结合确定性等价折现问题的延伸与数值应用结果,探讨了确定性等价折现研究发展的可能视角。Recent research suggests that the benefit-cost analysis of inter-temporal investment decision should use a declining discount rate schedule, represented by Weitzman. These research results get wide attention from academia, and are accepted by several countries. The main research method of declining discount rate schedule is certainty-equivalent method, which is highly controversial in the process of development. This paper presents the formation process of certainty-equivalent discounting theory, and summarizes the related literatures from the perspective that falling certainty- equivalent discount rate derives from uncertainty over future capital productivity. Based on it, this paper analyzes the influence of debates that on which expected net present value approach and gamma distribution hypothesis to theoretical research. Combining with extensions to certainty equivalent discounting research and empirical estimates, we explore some possible research perspectives.

关 键 词：折现 确定性等价折现率 综述 不确定资本产出率 伽马折现 

分 类 号：F019[经济管理—政治经济学]