宏观审慎政策调控住房市场的有效性研究  

A Study of the Effectiveness of Macro-Prudential Policy on Regulating the Housing Market

作　　者：王勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学统计学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《当代财经》2018年第3期12-22,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目青年项目"宏观审慎视角下住房市场财富效应的实证研究"(GJJ160459)

摘　　要：如何调控住房市场以防范金融系统性风险和经济硬着陆风险,已成为各国政府和经济学家们的棘手难题。在构建的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型中引入以动态贷款价值比为宏观审慎政策工具的宏观审慎政策,研究宏观审慎政策调控住房市场的有效性。研究结果表明:(1)宏观审慎政策的实施能很好地达到稳定住房价格的目标,从而有效防范金融系统性风险。(2)宏观审慎政策的实施会使住房偏好冲击和技术冲击下住房市场的财富效应影响更显著,能有效防范住房偏好冲击和技术冲击引发的经济硬着陆风险。(3)宏观审慎政策的实施会使货币政策冲击和通货膨胀冲击下住房市场的财富效应影响更不显著,不能有效防范货币政策冲击和通货膨胀冲击引发的经济硬着陆风险。How to regulate the housing market to prevent financial systematic risks and economic hard landing risks has become a difficult problem encountered by governments of all the countries and the economists. This paper introduces the macro-prudential policy, which takes the dynamic loan value ratio as the macro-prudential policy tool, into the constructed DSGE model, so as to study the effectiveness of macro-prudential policy on regulating the housing market. The results show that： （1） the implementation of the macro-prudential policy can achieve the goal of stabilizing the housing price, thus financial systematic risks can be effectively prevented; （2） the implementation of the macro-prudential policy will make the wealth effect of housing market under the impact of housing preference and technical shock more significant, which can effectively prevent economic hard landing risks caused by housing preference shock and technical shock; （3） the implementation of macro-pru- dential policy will make the wealth effect of housing market under the shocks of monetary policy and inflation less significant, which cannot effectively prevent economic hard landing risks caused by mon- etary policy and inflation shocks.

关 键 词：宏观审慎政策 金融系统性风险 经济硬着陆风险 DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]