工业化和财产保险需求:一个国际视角  

Industrialization And Nonlife Insurance Demand: A Cross-country Analysis

作　　者：徐华[1] 赵桂芹[2] 吴洪[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学,四川成都610074 [2]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [3]深圳大学经济学院,广东深圳518060

出　　处：《保险研究》2018年第1期52-66,共15页Insurance Studies

基　　金：教育部全国教育规划一般课题"中国保险业系统性风险生成机理;评价及宏观审慎监管研究(16XJA79009);教育部重点研究基地重大项目"大数据背景下保险需求影响因素研究(16JJD790061)"资助;广东省十三五社科规划一般项目"基于普惠金融视角的小额保险扶贫创新及发展策略研究(GD17CYJ02)

摘　　要：过去的文献侧重于对经济水平和保险需求的关系进行研究,忽略了经济的结构性因素对保险需求的影响。本文主要考察经济的结构性特征即产业结构是如何影响财险业需求变化的。我们定义了狭义工业化和包含服务业的广义工业化,以全球180个国家1990~2013年的数据为样本,利用分位数回归方法研究全球范围内工业化程度如何影响非寿险业的需求变化。我们发现,工业化总体来说对非寿险需求有显著的促进作用,但在高分位处出现逆转,开始对非寿险产生一定程度的抑制;广义工业化则在任何情况下均对非寿险有显著的正向影响。随着产业结构向服务业转移,财险业受服务业的影响越来越显著,弥补了狭义工业化在后期对非寿险需求产生的"抑制效应"。Past literature has devoted most of their attention to exploring the relations between economy and the de- mand for insurance, but neglected the impacts of economic structure factors on insurance demands. The paper there- fore analyzed how economic structure influenced the change of demands for nonlife insurance. Using a large world- wide unbalanced panel data of 180 countries from 1990 to 2013, we defined two industrialization levels, including narrow industrialization and generalized industrialization including the service industry, applied the quantile regres- sion method, and studied how the non-life insurance demand changed with the industrialization levels in the world. The study showed that industrialization promoted non-life insurance demand in general, but at the higher quantiles, the impact reversed and industrialization began to hinder the insurance demand to some extent. Moreover, we found generalized industrialization had significant positive effect on the non-life insurance demand in any case. With the shift of economic structure toward services, the non-life insurance demand was impacted more significantly, which made up for the ＂inhibition effect＂ from the narrow industrialization at later stages.

关 键 词：产业结构 工业化 服务业 非寿险需求 

分 类 号：F840.65[经济管理—保险]