基于GM(1,N)模型的郑州市房地产价格预测  

Price Prediction of Real Estate in Zhengzhou Based on GM(1,N) Model

作　　者：张荣艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄河科技学院信息工程学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2018年第5期82-88,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：河南省教育厅项目自然科学基金项目(16B110007)

摘　　要：首先从房地产需求、房地产供给、宏观经济三个方面对影响郑州市房地产价格的因素进行了灰色关联度分析．分析结果显示，造成郑州市房地产价格上涨的主要因素为：城镇居民可支配收入，竣工房屋平均造价，人均GDP，而土地供应面积和贷款利率对房地产价格的影响不大．然后，根据主要因素，建立了相应的GM（1．4）预测模型，对郑州市未来5年的房地产价格进行了预测．预测结果表明：房地产价格依然会继续上涨，且以每年约9％的增长率增长．In paper, from three angles of the supply and demand of real estate, the macro economic, the effect factors of real estate price in Zhengzhou are analyzed by grey relational degree. The analysis shows that： the major factors of real estate price in Zhengzhou are disposable income of urban residents, commodity house completion cost, per capita GDP, but the supply area and loan interest rate have little effect on the real estate price in Zhengzhou. Then, based on the major factors, GM（1,4） model was built and predicted the real estate price of Zhengzhou in future 5 years. The predictions suggest that the real estate price will continue to increase, and the growth rate is 9% .

关 键 词：郑州市 房价预测 灰色关联度 GM(1 4)模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]