碳约束下的中国省际电能终端消费——效率测度及影响因素研究  

Electric Power Terminal Consumption under Carbon Restriction——Efficiency Evaluation and Its Determinants

作　　者：王婷婷 朱建平[2] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学统计学院,福建厦门361021 [2]厦门大学数据挖掘研究中心,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2018年第2期211-223,共13页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(15CTJ005);国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD148);华侨大学海上丝绸之路研究基金项目(HSZD2014-15);华侨大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(16SKGC-QT04)

摘　　要：提出包含非期望产出的博弈交叉-Malmquist全要素生产率指数模型，利用该模型对中国2002—2014年30个省份的电力能源面板数据进行电力能源终端消费效率评价，并采用SYS—GMM动态面板模型对其影响因素进行分析。研究发现：（1）我国省际电力能源终端利用效率出现负增长，技术效率变动和技术变动是引发该问题两大因素。（2）我国经济相对落后的西北地区借助技术效率的后发优势，在电能终端消费效率的排序中跻身榜首，其次是华北和东北地区，而华东、华中和南方地区则处于末位。（3）电力能源效率具有传递效应，其前期表现会对现期产生显著影响，此外电力价格、对外开放程度和技术进步对电力能源效率具有正向影响，而产业结构与电力能源效率具有负相关关系。Puts forward the undesired output GC-Malmquist TFP index model, and evaluate the provin- cial electric power terminal energy consumption efficiency from China＇s 30 provinces in 2002-2014 electric energy panel data, and use of SYS-GMM dynamic panel data model to analyze the influencing factors. The study found： （1） The power of the provincial energy end-use efficiency of negative growth, changes in technical efficiency and technological change are the two major factors that caused the problem. （2） From regional level, the northwest region economy is relatively backward, but with the efficiency of technology rapid pursued, ranked first in the electric power terminal consumption efficiency of sorting, followed by the north and northeast, east, central and southern region is at the bottom. （3） From the determinants point of view, energy efficiency has a pass-through effect, its early performance will have a significant impact on the current period, in addition to the price of electricity, openness and technological progress have a positive impact on electrical energy efficiency, industrial structure and electrical energy efficiency has a negative correlation.

关 键 词：低碳约束 电力能源 GC—MalmquistTFP指数 动态面板 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]