城市化水平影响入境旅游发展的效应分析  

An Analysis of Effects of Urbanization on Development of Inbound Tourism in China

作　　者：王诚庆[1] 王明康 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,北京100028 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2018年第2期70-76,共7页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：文章基于现有文献,通过构建城市化水平影响入境旅游的理论框架,分别以16个入境旅游市场及6个入境旅游收入组成部分为研究样本,利用1996-2015年的时间序列数据,借助协整检验及Granger因果关系检验,深入探究城市化对我国入境旅游规模及效益的影响作用。结果表明,除俄罗斯外,城市化与我国香港及澳门地区、日本、韩国等15个客源市场游客规模存在长期均衡关系,并显著推动我国台湾地区、泰国、马来西亚、菲律宾、德国、美国、加拿大等入境旅游市场客源规模的扩大;城市化与6个入境旅游收入要素均存在长期均衡关系,并对长途交通、游览、商品销售及娱乐等要素收入提升起到明显的推动作用。在此基础上,提出了提升城市管理水平与文化内涵、注重城市旅游功能的发挥及促进城市餐饮、住宿行业高效发展的建议。This paper makes an in-depth study on the impact of urbanization on the scale and profit of China's inbound tourism based on the existing literature,by constructing theoretical framework of urbanization affecting inbound tourism,choosing respectively 16 inbound tourism markets and 6 revenue component as the research sample and using co-integration test and Granger causality test with the time series data from 1996 to 2015. The results show that,except Russia,a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between urbanization and the scale of 15 source markets such as the Hong Kong of China and the Macao of China,Japan,South Korea.And the urbanization of China promotes obviously tourist scale of the Taiwan of China and other countries in Southeast Asia, Europe and America such as Thailand, Malaysia,Philippines,Germany, United States and Canada; there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and inbound tourism revenue from six elements such long-distance transportation, catering,accommodation,shopping,sightseeing and entertainment. And the urbanization of China promotes obviously revenue from long-distance transportation,sightseeing,commodity sales and entertainment. On this basis,this paper puts forward suggestions for improving urban management and cultural connotations,attaching importance to developing tourism functions of urban and promoting the efficient development of urban accommodation and catering industry.

关 键 词：城市化 入境旅游 协整检验 GRANGER因果关系检验 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]