“去产能”对中国能源安全的影响初探  

A Preliminary Study on Effects of Cutting Overcapacity on China's Energy Security

作　　者：孔翔[1] 卞继超 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心&科技创新与发展战略研究中心,上海200241

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2018年第4期141-147,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"开发区建设与地方文化空间的重构"(项目编号:41271170).

摘　　要：本研究主要以产业结构调整对能源需求的可能影响为基础,基于1985~2015年的相关数据,通过向量自回归模型(VAR)初步分析了"去产能"对我国能源需求总量和结构的影响。研究表明,"去产能"在短期就能改善我国的能源消费结构,从而有助于增进能源使用安全;在长期,还有助于提升能源利用效率,从而改善能源的供应安全;但其对能源利用效率的影响是通过能源结构间接发生作用的,因此,希冀通过"去产能"快速改善我国的能源供应安全存在困难。The research is based on the possible influence which industrial structure adjustment may have on the demand ofenergy, and preliminarily analyzes effects of cutting overcapacity on energy demand and energy consumption structure in China withthe Vector Autoregression model and relevant data from 1985 to 2015. Research suggests that cutting overcapacity can improve ourenergy consumption structure in the short term, then help to enhance energy using security. In the long term, it also helps to pro？mote energy efficiency, thereby improve energy supply security. However, its impact on energy efficiency is indirectly mediatedthrough the energy structure, and it is difficult to strengthen energy supply security in the short term through cutting overcapacity.

关 键 词：供给侧改革 向量自回归模型 能源供应安全 能源使用安全 去产能 能源结构 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F121