基于证据网络的C2C商品购买风险动态评估模型  

Dynamic assessment model for C2C commodity purchasing risk based on evidential network

作　　者：王忠群 汝志愿 皇苏斌 修宇 

机构地区：[1]安徽工程大学管理工程学院,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《控制与决策》2018年第3期521-528,共8页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71371012);教育部人文社会科学规划项目(13YJA630098)

摘　　要：C2C(consumer to consumer)电子商务市场中的风险认知是消费者网络购物决策的重要依据之一.首先,分析电子商务市场中商家信誉、商品销量和在线商品评论对消费者网购决策的影响;然后,运用信度规则模型推理节点关系,建立基于证据网络的C2C商品购买风险动态评估模型;最后利用从某电子商务网站收集的观测信息,运用多元线性回归分析方法验证购买风险动态评估模型的可行性.借助本模型,可以帮助消费者在网购商品过程中较好地认知商品购买的风险.Risk perception is an important basis of decision-making for online shopping in consumer to consumer（C2 C）E-commerce markets. Firstly, the paper analyzes the influence of seller reputation, product sales and online product reviews on decision-making for online shopping. Then, an evidential network-based dynamic risk assessment model for C2 C commodity purchasing is instructed, and the belief rule model is used to reason the network nodes. Finally,the feasibility of the risk assessment model for commodity purchase online is verified by using the multivariate linear regression analysis on the data set from observation information of the E-commerce platform. With the help of this model,consumers can better understand the risk of buying goods in online shopping.

关 键 词：证据网络 信度规则模型 在线购买风险 风险评估 

分 类 号：G251[文化科学—图书馆学]