我国铁路货运需求影响因素及发展趋势  

The Influence Factors and Development Trend of China Railway Freight Demand

作　　者：樊桦[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会综合运输研究所

出　　处：《综合运输》2018年第2期12-17,22,共7页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：短期来看铁路货运需求受经济周期的影响较大,与经济走势具有较高的正相关性。当前到2030年,经济增长、能源消费需求增长、基本建设投资增长、完成工业化进程等对铁路货运需求正向增长的推动作用要强于产业转型升级、能源结构调整和利用方式变化等对铁路货运需求增长的抑制作用,我国铁路货运需求将保持低速增长。与此同时,产业结构调整、新兴产业和业态发展、居民消费结构升级等因素将促使各类“白货”运输需求持续快速增长,铁路货运需求结构变化更为显著。长期来看,我国国情决定了对铁路货运保持着较高的依赖性,铁路货运需求不会出现大幅快速下降的局面,铁路货运分担率最终将稳定在一定的水平上,铁路长期在货运领域发挥重要作用。The railway freight demand is highly related to the economic cycle in the short term. From now to 2030, positive factors including economic growth, energy consumption growth, infrastructure investment growth and industrialization will push railway freight demand to increase continuously. And in the meantime, industrial restructure, new industries development and resident consumption upgrading will produce more transport demand for the manufactured goods, which will cause obvious changes to the railway freight demand structure. In the long term, the market share of railway transportation will keep stable and railway transportation will continue to play an important role in China freight market. Keyword： Railway freight demand; Influence factors; Development trend

关 键 词：铁路货运需求 影响因素 发展趋势 

分 类 号：F542[经济管理—产业经济]