城市轨道交通线网客流预测及特征研究  

Passenger Flow Prediction and Characteristics of Urban Rail Transit Network

作　　者：仇智勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司

出　　处：《综合运输》2018年第2期58-63,77,共7页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：建设高效绿色的轨道交通系统已成为各大城市提升城市形象、缓解交通拥堵、方便居民出行的首选,而客流预测是其中必不可少的重要工作。本文结合普洱市城市轨道交通客流预测实例,在研究现状城市居民出行特征、公交发展水平及道路系统运行特征基础上,利用四阶段模型理论,分析普洱市不同组团间的居民出行量、出行分布、出行结构等特征,对普洱市城市轨道交通线网客流进行测试,通过预测线路的断面流量、客运量、负荷强度,确定不同的比选方案指标,为城市轨道交通线网规划提供量化支撑。Passenger flow forecasting is essential for developing rail transit system, which is critical for cities to promote images, alleviate traffic congestion and facilitate residents travel. Based on studies of urban residents travel characteristics, public transport development level and road operation features of Pu＇er city, this paper uses four-stage method to analyze passenger volume features, trip distribution and travel structures between different zones, then determines the indexes of the alternative options by testing urban rail transit network through measuring cross-section flow, passenger volume as well as line load strength, and provides quantitative support for the urban rail transit network planning. Keyword： Rail transit network; Passenger volume forecast; Passenger flow characteristics; Plans comparison

关 键 词：轨道线网 客流预测 客流特征 方案比选 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] U293.13