口岸生物因子事件危害范围的模拟研究  

Simulation Study of Bioaerosols' Diffusion at Frontier Ports

作　　者：李林中[1] 朱振坤 陈峰[1] 吴尔翔[1] 唐晓宇[1] 崔萍 陆永昌[3] 

机构地区：[1]南通出入境检验检疫局,江苏南通226004 [2]南通国信环境科技有限公司,江苏南通226007 [3]江苏出入境检验检疫局,江苏南京210007

出　　处：《口岸卫生控制》2018年第1期14-20,共7页Port Health Control

基　　金：江苏出入境检验检疫局2015KJ40课题支持

摘　　要：目的通过高斯扩散模型研究口岸生物恐怖事件中的生物因子扩散模拟和污染区域的划分,为突发公共卫生事件应急处置提供科学依据。方法运用高斯扩散模型对口岸中生物因子的扩散进行计算机模拟,结合几个典型的生物战剂的感染浓度对扩散后气溶胶的浓度和分布进行污染区域的划分。结果通过对常见的生物有害因子包括炭疽芽孢杆菌、鼠疫耶尔森菌、布鲁氏菌、土拉菌、类鼻疽伯克霍尔德菌及肉毒毒素进行模拟计算,可以得出不同气象、植被条件下生物战剂的污染情况,准确划定风险区域。结论利用高斯扩散模型可以精确模拟出口岸生物因子的扩散并划分污染区域,为口岸突发公共卫生事件应急响应提供决策支持。Objective The Gaussian diffusion model was used to simulate the diffusion of bioaerosols and the division of contaminated areas in the bioterrorism incident at ports, so as to provide scientific support for public health emergencies. Methods The Gaussian diffusion model was used to simulate the diffusion of biological a- gents at ports, and divide the concentration and distribution of the aerosol according to the infection concentra- tion of different biological agents. Results By simulating the common biological agents including Bacillus an- thracis, yersinia pestis, brucella, tulipamus, burkholderia pseudomallei and botulinum toxin, the pollution of biological factors under different meteorological and vegetation conditions can be obtained, and the risk areas can be accurately delineated. Conclusion The Gaussian diffusion model can be used to simulate the diffusion of biological agents and divide the contaminated areas to provide the decision-making support for emergency re- sponse of public health emergencies.

关 键 词：生物恐怖 口岸 生物因子 高斯模型 扩散模拟 

分 类 号：R185.35[医药卫生—流行病学]