供给侧改革背景下中国产业结构升级研究——基于面板数据的空间计量模型  

Study on the Upgrading of China's Industrial Structure under the Background of Supply-side Reform:SARAR Model Based on Panel Data

作　　者：程兰芳[1] 黄皓 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2018年第3期72-79,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目<基于全球价值链的政府贸易救济政策决策过程重构与评估方法研究>(71774008)

摘　　要：新常态下的中国产业结构调整迫在眉睫,供给侧改革的提出为产业结构升级指明了方向。从供给侧改革的任务出发,选取影响产业结构升级的五大因素,并构建相应的指标体系;采用产业结构高度化和产业结构合理化作为衡量产业结构升级的两个维度,并借助几何图形综合直观地考察中国各地区产业结构升级状况,发现东部地区产业发展优于中西部。基于面板数据经验分析各因素对产业结构升级的影响,结果显示,地方财政支出对产业结构高度化和合理化均存在着显著正向作用;税收政策对产业结构高度化和合理化有显著负向影响;金融环境和居民收支仅对产业结构高度化影响显著;国有化程度仅对产业结构合理化有显著影响。The adjustment of China's industrial structure is imminent under the new normal condition,and the reform of the supply side points out the direction for upgrading the industrial structure.The article begins with the task of supply side reform,and selects the five major factors that affect the upgrading of industrial structure,and constructs the corresponding index system.Secondly,the supererogation of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure as a measure of the two dimensions of the upgrading of industrial structure,and with the help of geometry to visually inspect the status of the comprehensive upgrading of the industrial structure in every area of China,the midwest industrial development in eastern region is better than that.Thirdly,based on the panel data,the influence of various factors on the upgrading of industrial structure is analyzed.The results showed that the local fiscal expenditure on the upgrading of industrial structure have significant positive effect;Tax policy has a significant negative impact on the industrial structure's upgrading;The financial environment and resident's income only effects the supererogation of industrial structure;nationalization degree of industrial structure rationalization has significant effect.

关 键 词：供给侧改革 产业结构升级 产业结构高度化 产业结构合理化 SARAR模型 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]