模拟未来气候变化对东北6种蒲公英种子风传播距离的影响  

The impacts of simulated climate change on seed dispersal distance by wind for six dandelion species in northeast China

作　　者：吴建国[1] 徐天莹 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [2]甘肃农业大学林学院,兰州734000

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2018年第3期914-928,共15页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑项目(2012BAC19B06);国家自然科学基金项目(41173085)资助

摘　　要：为了确定气候变化对植物种子风传播过程的影响,以全球气候模式Nor ESM1-M产生的RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0和RCP8.5气候变化情景数据和WINDISPER-L拉格朗日风速廓线种子风传播模型,模拟分析了未来气候变化对丹东蒲公英(Taraxacum antungense)、东北蒲公英(T.ohwianum)、亚洲蒲公英(T.asiaticum)、长春蒲公英(T.junpeianum)、朝鲜蒲公英(T.coreanum)和蒙古蒲公英(T.mongolicum)在辽宁凤城、吉林长春和黑龙江穆棱县5—10月种子风传播距离的影响。结果表明:未来气候变化下,辽宁凤城、吉林长春和黑龙江穆棱县气温上升、年降水量增加或下降但波动较大,风速增加但波动明显;在3个不同地点,2001—2050年5—10月这些植物种子风传播距离在1 m内、波动明显,在多数年份这些蒲公英种子风传播距离下降(减少程度在10%以下),个别年份增加。说明在未来气候变化下东北蒲公英种子传播距离将下降,但存在植物种类、时间和地点方面的差异。To understand the effect of climate change on the seed dispersal process by wind, the effects of climate change on the seed dispersal distance ofTaraxacum antungense, T.ohwianum,T. asiaticum, T.junpeianum,T.coreanum, and T.mongolicum in Fengcheng of LiaoningProvince, Changchun of Jilin Province and Muling County of Heilongjiang Province from May to October were monitored, based on climate change scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 generated by the global climate model of NorESM1-M, and by using the seed winddispersal model of WINDISPER-L Lagrangian wind profile. The results showed that, under future climate change scenarios, air temperature would increase, the annual precipitation wouldincrease or decrease with obvious fluctuations, and wind speed would increase with obviousfluctuations in the three regions. The seed dispersal distances of those species by wind were about 1 m with high fluctuations from May to October in the period 2001-2050. Under different climate change scenarios, the seed dispersal distance of these dandelion species would decrease compared with that under baseline scenarios in most years from 2001 to 2050, whereas it wouldincrease in some exceptional years. The results suggest that the seed dispersal distance of these dandelion species would decrease, and such changes would be dependent on plant species identity, time, and location.

关 键 词：气候变化 蒲公英 种子风传播 风传播模型 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]