2016/17榨季中国食糖生产形势分析与2017/18榨季展望  

Production Situation of China's Sugar in 2016/17 Crushing Season and Its Prospect for 2017/18 Crushing Season

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 王新超[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学,北京100048

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第2期57-64,共8页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部现代农业(糖料)产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-170601);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究"

摘　　要：2016/17榨季全球食糖产业处于减产的第2年,国际糖价震荡下行,国内糖价先涨后跌。受甘蔗种植面积下滑影响,2016/17榨季中国糖料种植面积略降,但由于甘蔗种植比较收益回升,农民种植意愿、田间护理增加,中国食糖产量增长6.75%。2016/17榨季,因糖价上涨,农民收入增加,制糖企业普遍盈利;在贸易保障措施下进口糖有所减少,中国食糖去库存进度加快,但走私糖形势日益复杂。展望2017/18榨季,预计种植面积小幅回升,中国食糖产量估计为1000万～1 020万t;在贸易保障措施下,正规进口糖大致可控,单产、走私糖、替代品与储备政策等将对国内食糖产业格局有较大影响。In 2016/17 crushing season, the global sugar industry is in the second year of production reduction, and international sugar price fluctuated with a trend of going downward, while domestic sugar price rose first and then fell. Affected by the decline of sugar cane planting area, the plantation area of sugar crops in China declined slightly in 2016/17 crushing season, but caused by rising in comparative benefit from sugar cane cultivation, the farmers＇ willingness of growing sugar crops and field nursing were increased, so China＇s sugar production increased by 6.75 percent. In 2016/17 crushing season, because the sugar price rose, the farmers＇ income increased and sugar enterprises were generally profitable; the imported sugar reduced under trade security measures, and the destocking progress of China＇s sugar sped up, but the situation of smuggling sugar was increasingly complex. Looking forward to 2017/18 crushing season, the planting area was expected to rise slightly, and China＇s sugar production was estimated to be from 10 million tons to 10.20 million tons; under the trade protection measures, the regular imported sugar will be basically controllable, and the industrial structure of domestic sugar will be affected by yield, smuggling sugar, substitution, reserve policies and so on.

关 键 词：食糖 甘蔗 甜菜 种植面积 产量 价格 进口量 贸易保障措施 展望 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济]