国家间战争与国内族群冲突  

How Does Interstate War Affect Ethnic Conflict?

作　　者：王凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2018年第2期71-96,共26页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：2017年国家社会科学基金年度重点项目"‘一带一路’沿线国家的族群冲突与中国海外利益的维护研究"的支持(项目批准号:17AGJ001)

摘　　要：现有族群冲突的国际或跨国维度研究大多倾向于将国际政治当作国内族群冲突的结果而非原因,忽视了国际政治对于族群冲突爆发的影响机制。实际上,1946—2013年期间,国家间战争作为国际竞争和冲突的一种极端形式,与国内族群冲突在时空上存在明显的相关关系。这是因为国家间战争首先会在战争前、战争中和战争后影响敌对国家和国内少数族群的能力和动机,之后多方间的战略互动则会进一步导致国内族群冲突的爆发。具体来说,国家间战争对族群冲突的诱发效果会通过以下三个能够相互正向反馈的中间机制起作用:国家间战争导致国家干预敌国族群政治的动机大幅提升,国家因战争威胁而削弱了对内的控制能力,少数族群则将国家间战争视为获得外部援助和更多群体政治利益的机会。随后的计量分析通过结合全球国家间战争和国内族群冲突数据库(1946—2013年)验证了该理论假设,发现在控制了混杂因素的情况下,相比于和平时期,在国家间战争前、战争中和战争后国内族群冲突爆发的概率会显著上升。忽视或弱化国际政治的影响导致学界对族群冲突的理解趋于片面、归因产生偏差,不利于国际社会对族群冲突的有效管控。讨论国际战争对族群冲突的诱发机制一方面能够完善我们对族群政治的国际维度的理解,另一方面提醒我们,除了国际战争的原因,其影响同样是重要的研究议题。Overlooking the importance of interstate war as a powerful factor to explain the onset of ethnic conflict is a hindrance to the understanding of the interplay of interstate-intrastate nexus in general,and the transnational dimension of specific ethnic conflicts. Empirically, we find an unexplored question that interstate war and ethnic conflict are geographically and temporally clustered. To explain this phenomenon,this paper argues for a causal explanation that the interstate war leads to more ethnic civil wars,because all the three( pre-/mid-/post-) interstate war eras can alter the strategic motives and capabilities of both the warring parties and the minorities residing in.More specifically,the interstate war tends to cause more ethnic conflicts by activating the three intermediate mechanisms: the greater incentive of hostile states to intervene in each other's domestic ethnic politics,the weakening of the host state and its gradual loss of domestic control,expectation of external aid and radicalization of political demands on the part of the minorities. After combining dataset of interstate wars and ethnic civil wars( 1946-2013) and controlling those potential confounders,the regressions show that,the probability of ethnic conflicts would be higher if it's near an interstate war. The findings of the paper contribute to the academic discussion of both the transnational dimension of ethnic conflict and the impact of interstate war.

关 键 词：族群冲突 国家间战争 跨国关系 冲突管理 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]