2014年深圳市宝安区麻疹流行特征及时空聚集性分析  

Temporal and spatial distribution and descriptive epidemiological analysis of measles in Baoan District in Shenzhen City

作　　者：彭敬[1] 李国伟[2] 张定梅[3] 叶发忠[1] 唐广心[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心,广东440306 [2]郑州市疾病预防控制中心 [3]中山大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《医学动物防制》2018年第3期231-233,共3页Journal of Medical Pest Control

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划项目(201504074)

摘　　要：目的掌握2014年深圳市宝安区麻疹发病的时空分布特征。方法对资料进行描述性流行病学分析,利用Sa TScan 9.4软件进行时空扫描分析,通过Arc GIS 9.0软件呈现麻疹时空聚集区域。结果深圳市宝安区麻疹发病在时空上存在明显聚集性,发现一个最可能聚集区,实际发生麻疹病例58例,理论病例数为9.78例,RR=6.73,P=0.00 000 062,差异有统计学意义。同时发现一个次要聚集区域,实际发生麻疹病例21例,理论病例数为2.83例,RR=7.78,P=0.0 000 015,差异有统计学意义。时空扫描分析结果与描述性流行病学分析结果一致且更详细。结论时空扫描分析方法可以很好地探测出深圳市宝安区麻疹聚集区域,可以更有效地进行疫点处理。Objective To know the temporal and spatial distribution of measles and to provide evidence for disease control. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted. Sa TScan 9. 4 software was used to conduct space-time scan statistic and measles clusters were showed with Arc GIS 9. 0 software. Results Measles clusters were found in Baoan District in Shenzhen. The most likely cluster was found by spatial-temporal scan with statistical significance,measles cases was 58 and the expected cases is 9. 78（RR = 6. 73,P 〉0. 001）. Secondary clusters were found by spatial-temporal scan with statistical significance,measles cases was 21 and the expected cases is 2. 83（RR = 7. 78,P〈 0. 001）. The spatial and temporal scan results were consistent with descriptive epidemiological analysis. Conclusion Spatial-temporal scan statistic is fit to analyze the clusters of measles in Baoan District in Shenzhen,and could provide valuable information for the disease control.

关 键 词：麻疹 流行特征 时空扫描分析 

分 类 号：R511.1[医药卫生—内科学]